To paraphrase Billy Beane, the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot. Analysts tend to favor teams that were hot down the stretch, but unfortunately for those analysts, none of the four squads facing off in the American League playoffs have much momentum heading into October.
Rather than sprinting across the finish line, the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers limped, crawled and hobbled their way over. New York and Tampa Bay both played sub−.500 ball in the final month of the season, while Minnesota dropped eight of its last 10 to cede home−field advantage. Texas may have been the best of the bunch, managing to go merely 16−14 in September and October.
Although none of the four teams are currently flourishing, they all bring potent rosters to the postseason. However, nobody has the dominant rotation that often guarantees postseason success. The race for the pennant is wide open, but the Daily will try to break it down for you, series by series: New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Things could not have gone worse on the final day of the season for Twins fans. Not only did they come up short of gaining home−field advantage, but a Rays win, coupled with a Yankees loss, meant another matchup with the Bombers.
While Minnesota has been one of the most consistent teams in the AL in recent years, it has been tormented time and again by New York. Since 2002, the Yankees are 54−18 against the Twins, including 9−2 in the playoffs. Most recently, New York thumped Minnesota 3−0 in the 2009 ALDS on its way to a World Series Championship.
In what has become the quintessential big market vs. small market matchup, the Twins have not been able to acquire the talent to go swing for swing with the Yankees. They may, however, have fixed the problem during the offseason by signing Jim Thome, who is now eighth all−time in home runs. Thome hit 25 home runs in just 276 at−bats and is slugging .627, his highest mark since 2002.
Thome will need to produce in the heart of a lineup that lacks Justin Morneau, who is out with a concussion. Granted, the Twins still have Joe Mauer, who hit .327 on the year, but they'll need more than that to keep pace with the Yankees.
The Bombers have their own slew of problems, mainly centered on their pitching staff. New York rode a three−man rotation consisting of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte to a championship a year ago. But a lot can change in just one season. While Sabathia remains an ace, Burnett has an ERA above 5.00 and is in line to be replaced by 24−year−old Phil Hughes, while Pettitte has yet to prove he is 100 percent since returning from a groin injury in mid−September.
Even more troubling is that some of the team's stalwarts have been struggling in recent months. Mariano Rivera blew three saves in September, and Derek Jeter is hitting .270 on the year, the worst of his career.
While both teams have their shortcomings, the Twins are not quite ready to break the trend. Pettitte, Jeter and Rivera always show up in October, and Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira both put up strong numbers down the stretch. The champs move on. Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
For many people, there is nothing quite like an October pitcher's duel. Two pitchers putting goose egg after goose egg on the scoreboard in one of the biggest games of the season is a recipe for excitement.
The bout between the Rangers and Rays may feature the best pitching matchup of any divisional series, with Cy Young candidate David Price (19−6, 2.72 ERA) facing off with 2009 playoff superstar Cliff Lee (12−9, 3.18 ERA).
Price has become one of the top pitchers in the league in only his second full season as a starter. Mixing a high−90s fastball with a nasty breaking ball, he has been unhittable for large stretches of the year.
Lee put himself on the map last October pitching for the Phillies, going 4−0 with a 1.56 ERA. In the World Series, he bested the Yankees twice, including a complete−game victory in Game 1.
While the focus may be on the pitchers, both teams bring deep lineups to the series as well. Carl Crawford will be looking to perform for the Rays in his final audition before free agency this winter, while Evan Longoria could make a serious case for being the best third baseman in the league with a strong October.
In the Rangers' dugout, there is unsurprisingly an overload of offense. Josh Hamilton was the best hitter in the American League this year (.359 average, 32 home runs) and the ageless Vladimir Guerrero proved his critics wrong by hitting .300. Michael Young and Nelson Cruz round out a potent middle of the lineup that slugged 104 home runs over the course of the season.
The series will likely hinge on Price and Lee's two showdowns in a five−game slate. The Rays already beat Lee all three times they faced him this season and have the tools to manufacture runs with speed and small ball even if he does manage to shut them down. The Rangers may have made the playoffs for the first time in the new millennium, but that is as far as they will be going.
In a potential matchup between the Yankees and Rays, it's hard to pick against the defending champs. New York has more experience and a deeper lineup. With Carlos Pena having an off−year, Tampa Bay just does not have enough bats to swing with the Yankees. It will be tight, but the Yankees should be lifting the William Harridge Trophy in late October.
