For the first time in seven years, the National League will have home−field advantage in the World Series. That's excellent news for all four Senior Circuit playoff teams, considering that each of them this season posted a markedly better record at home than on the road.
The two−time defending NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies, coming off their fourth straight NL East division title and led by a stellar rotation and a power−packed lineup, are once again the favorites to win the pennant. But the other three NL qualifiers aren't about to go quietly.
The upstart Cincinnati Reds, making their first playoff appearance since 1995 as the winners of the NL Central, have a nice mix of veterans and young studs, including MVP candidate Joey Votto.
The San Francisco Giants, back in the postseason for the first time in the post−Barry Bonds era, won the NL West on the strength of a phenomenal pitching staff and a lineup that epitomizes the adage: "One team's trash is another team's treasure."
The Atlanta Braves, hoping to send legendary manager Bobby Cox off with a world championship, barely snuck in as the NL Wild Card. Their late−inning relief corps, featuring closer Billy Wagner plus setup men Takashi Saito and Jonny Venters, is arguably the best of all eight teams still standing.
So, which of the four contenders will represent the National League in the World Series beginning Oct. 27? The Daily goes series−by−series to figure it out: Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies
As the final weekend of the regular season passed by and the final two postseason berths were clinched by the Giants and Braves, the fans of those teams had two things in mind: They wanted to play the Reds, and they did not want to play the Phillies. On paper, this matchup is a mismatch.
Manager Charlie Manuel selected the longer version of the NLDS, which runs Wednesday to Wednesday, enabling the Phillies to maximize the greatest disparity between the teams: their starting rotations. In this week−long series, each team will need only three starting pitchers, and the Phillies have the best trio around in Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels. The Reds will counter with Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto, all of whom may dazzle on any given night, but whose inexperience could lead to inconsistent results.
The teams' lineups are about equal in talent, with the Phillies boasting superior hitting but the Reds playing better defense.
There is no better heart−of−the−order in the National League than second baseman Chase Utley, first baseman Ryan Howard and right fielder Jayson Werth, and from one to eight, every Phillies hitter is capable of changing a game with a home run.
The Reds have a scrappier offense — led by Votto and veteran third baseman Scott Rolen — which relies on platoon advantages and small ball, as well as the speed of second baseman Brandon Phillips and outfielder Drew Stubbs.
If the Reds have an advantage in this series, it may lie in the bullpen, because the Phillies ranked just 18th in the league with a 4.02 bullpen ERA this season. Reds manager Dusty Baker has a not−so−secret weapon in rookie flamethrower Aroldis Chapman, whose 103−mph fastball might be exactly what Cincinnati needs to neutralize Philadelphia's left−handed sluggers in the late innings.
In the end, though, the Phillies' big three starters will be too big an obstacle for the Reds — who had a lowly .340 winning percentage against over−.500 teams during the regular season — to overcome. Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Unlike the Phillies and Reds, the Giants and Braves did not know that they would be in the playoffs until the very end of the regular season.
Fortunately for the Giants, they did not need two−time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum to clinch the NL West crown but will have him available for Game 1 on Thursday. The Braves will be forced to start Derek Lowe instead of their No. 1 man Tim Hudson, giving the Giants the early edge in starting pitching.
The health of Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta's No. 4 starter who is dealing with a balky knee, is also in question. With workhorse Matt Cain and surging lefty Jonathan Sanchez — owner of a 1.02 ERA since Sept. 1 — behind Lincecum, the Giants have the deeper staff, even with young phenom Tommy Hanson set to follow the sinkerballers for the Braves.
On offense, both teams have had more problems than solutions. An intriguing subplot that matches Rookie of the Year hopefuls Buster Posey and Jason Heyward against each other is overshadowed by glaring weaknesses on both sides. The Giants are a station−to−station team, whose only true steal threat is leadoff man Andres Torres and whose lack of speed leaves them susceptible to double plays. The Braves, on the other hand, lack the power that most contenders bring to the table, ranking just 16th in the league with 69 homers since the All−Star break. But they have plenty of contact hitters and are capable of mounting a rally.
Both teams' bullpens are excellent, starring shutdown closers in Brian Wilson and Billy Wagner, as well as reliable setup men. The Giants and Braves ranked second and third, respectively, in bullpen ERA during the regular season.
Therefore, a close, low−scoring affair is likely in store. In fact, this may be the best bet of the four division series matchups to become the first to go to the maximum of five games since 2005. The Braves' multi−dimensional offense gives them a slight advantage overall, so expect them to prevail in five.
In the hypothetical NLCS showdown between NL East rivals, the Phillies' 1−2−3 rotation punch once again gives them a sizable head start. The Braves' only advantage will be their bullpen, and the Phillies will answer with the more talented lineup, so expect the Phillies to win their third consecutive NL pennant in six games.
