Experts on Middle Eastern politics from Tufts and Harvard University last night said the protests in Egypt and the recent upheaval of the country's government represent a fundamental change in the course of the region's history.
Tarek Masoud, an assistant professor of public policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, and Malik Mufti, associate professor of political science and former head of Tufts' undergraduate International Relations program, addressed over 350 students in the Cabot Intercultural Center ASEAN Auditorium last night for a "crash course" on the political motivations and implications of Egypt's revolt.
The lecture was sponsored by the New Initiative for Middle East Peace and the International Relations program's Director's Leadership Council.
Mufti and Masoud called the popular uprising and the subsequent resignation of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak a puzzle that has confounded political scientists and policy makers who suspected that any regime change in Egypt would stem from the country's elite.
Masoud said a similar uprising in Tunisia that began in December and resulted in the ouster of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali sparked the pro-democracy protests in Egypt.
"When looking at events in Tunisia, many Egyptians are asking themselves, ‘If they can unseat such an entrenched dictator, why can't we?' A key ingredient in mobilizing Egyptians against their regime was a recognition that the people can win against a dictator," Masoud said.
Masoud also partially attributed Mubarak's resignation to the Egyptian military establishment's sympathy for the protesters and its unhappiness with the regime.
"The protests were successful in large part because the military agreed to not fire on civilians. In a way, this signified their desire to see Mubarak step down," Masoud said.
Mufti addressed the implications of Egypt's uprisings within the larger context of the Middle East, saying the popular nature of the revolt marks a shift for the region.
"What we are seeing is a collapse in the political authoritarian order that was established in many Middle Eastern countries after World War II," Mufti said. "The ability of Egyptians to change the regime through people power rather than a coup and [to] hold a popular uprising in the name of democracy rather than nationalism, or pan-Arabism, has fundamentally changed the political discourse in the Arab world."
Mufti said a normative change over the past three decades has established democracy as the standard of political legitimacy in the Middle East.
"Democracy is the most legitimate idea on earth right now," he said. "No longer is it referred to as giving power to the ‘bleating masses.' Now, it's used as a mechanism to trim the claws of authoritarian regimes, as in Egypt."
Both professors acknowledged that while Egypt's supreme military council has promised democratic reform, an Egyptian transition to democracy remains a tenuous and possibly violent prospect.
"It's not lost on anyone that Egypt is at the complete mercy of the military to follow through on their promise," Masoud said. "The military establishment is very conservative and favors a strong political leadership capable of countering perceived outside threats."
Mufti called for the United States to recognize the complexities of establishing a new democracy.
"The U.S. needs to realize that democratic reform will take time and that there are many destabilizing factors that extremists, Islamists and radicals can and will exploit," he said. "But that's the risk of democracy."
Mufti addressed Israel's relationship with Egypt, given the new, temporary regime. Although the military leadership has vowed to uphold peace treaties with Israel, he said, a new Egyptian government will most likely adopt a more hostile view towards Israel than Mubarak.
"In any Arab country, when the people are allowed to articulate their sentiments, they will express resentment at Israel," he said.
Masoud urged the audience to understand that the political evolution in Egypt is not complete and the final result will depend on the inertia of the pro-democracy movement that began with the protests last month.
"The real challenge for Egypt is to transform something on the street into something that can run for elections and win. Now they need to organize the leadership and establish political institutions that will ensure democratic change. Until that happens, it's not yet a revolution."
