October is synonymous with the beginning of fall, the explosion of color in the foliage, sweatshirt worthy temperatures, Halloween and, for sports fans, the beginning of basketball season. Basketball fans would normally begin preparing for opening night, marking their calendars with their favorite teams' first games, highlighting key matchups and researching the latest news on all their favorite players.
This year, however, is a much different story. Rather than sporting their teams' jerseys on the hardwood, many NBA stars could have very different agendas.
Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo, among others, will be returning to the University of Kentucky to finish his college education. Deron Williams of the New Jersey Nets will be taking his talents to Besiktas, Turkey. Kobe Bryant will likely join Williams in playing overseas, reportedly with an Italian club. Kevin Durant will be expanding his resume in light of the lockout, starring in a movie titled "Switch."
All of this has taken place following a recent resurgence of the NBA: TV ratings, fan attendance and revenue were at an all−time high last season for the league.
If the current lockout continues or leads to the cancellation of the 2011−2012 season, the NBA could lose all of the momentum it gained over the past several years.
A quick look into the details of the lockout is necessary to understand the conflict at hand. The collective bargaining agreement between the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association expired on June 30.
Without an agreement, the league is unable to operate by law and must institute a work stoppage.
What's making the negotiations for a new agreement so difficult? Money.
The players currently get 57 percent of the league's revenue, and the team owners would like to see this figure drop significantly. The league is using a 2009 Forbes report which states that 12 of the 30 organizations actually lost money during the 2008−2009 season, and that the NBA had to borrow $175 million to bail out financially struggling teams to back up its claim.
Owners point to inflated player salaries as the cause of these financial hardships. They also want a fixed, hard salary cap with stricter regulations on player signings, though NBA Commissioner David Stern eased off that demand in negotiations earlier this week.
Billy Hunter, the executive director of the Players Association, disagrees with the league's arguments, stating that the reported losses overstate the league's financial woes.
It's not surprising that the players and owners can't come to a new agreement; they can't even agree on the underlying facts.
If the lockout continues, it could have devastating effects for all parties involved. The last time the NBA had a lockout, during the 1998−1999 season, both sides reached a compromise in time for a shortened, 50−game season, but the league suffered financial losses, took a hit to its public image and lost fan loyalty, all of which had lasting effects on its operations. With the possibility of a postponed start or cancellation of the 2011−2012 season, one has to wonder, who will be most affected by the absence of basketball this year?
Surely, the players will not be happy about losing their salaries, but LeBron James, who has accumulated roughly $76.5 million in his eight−year career, can do without one year's pay. The owners stand to lose financially, as most of their money is invested in the teams, and their profits would plunge from the absence of ticket revenues and merchandise sales. However, there is quite a market for NBA teams, and as evidenced by the recent sale of the Golden State Warriors for $450 million, the owners will likely survive, too.
The thousands of NBA and team employees may not be so lucky. Eleven percent of the NBA's workforce was laid off in July, and many team employees will be out of a job if the season doesn't happen.
In addition to NBA employees, fans will suffer. Players like James, Bryant and Durant have a finite number of years in their career trajectory, and the lockout is wasting their ability to excite and entertain fans in one of those years.
But by far the worst consequence of the lockout is the hit to the game's integrity. No longer will NBA basketball be viewed as pure competition and fun for young fans; it will carry the negative stigma of a money−driven business.
Negotiations continue between the Players Association and the league, but according to both sides, an agreement is not likely in the near future, barring significant headway this weekend.
Stern is soon expected to issue a drop−dead date, likely sometime in January, after which if no agreement has been reached, the season will be canceled.
If this situation unfolds, not only will the players, owners, employees and fans suffer, but the NBA risks falling farther behind the NFL and MLB in America's sports hierarchy.
