Though the majority of the scientific community has reached a consensus that climate change is a real phenomenon and life-threatening problem, there are many ideas of what the "worst case" could look like. Some scientists argue that certain areas have already hit a tipping point; for example, species are dying out at an unprecedented rate, and diversity will probably never be the same again. In addition, the environmental changes caused by climate change — diminishing water resources, changing rain patterns, diminishing crop returns — are already producing social consequences.
Migrations of people looking for life-sustaining resources can become a political weapon or capacity swamp on a neighboring nation, creating tensions with their neighbors and potentially provoking war. Internally, tensions between different ethnic groups who already are in conflict will be exacerbated as they battle for grazing land and clean water. Scarcity of resources will become yet another reason for conflict against old enemies.
Changing temperatures won't just make some parts of the world hotter; others will grow cooler. Rains will come not in monsoon seasons but in intermittent downpours that destroy topsoil by washing it away rather than enriching it over the course of the rainy season. Decreased soil richness and changing climate patterns will lead to decreased crop yields; prices for grains will rise, a known cause of political unrest due to rising food prices.
Though there are ways to mitigate and potentially reverse some of the adverse effects of climate change, these are not widely practiced. Bringing these low-use techniques into widespread use will take both time and political will. With the accelerating pace of climate change, there may not be time for these necessary preconditions to come into force. Indeed, there are still climate change deniers. The countries most able to affect greenhouse gas outputs (like the U.S.) are the ones doing very little about these problems and even denying their existence. Furthermore, the economic gain possible when using harmful chemicals and energy techniques eliminates incentives for change amongst these powerful countries. They are growing richer while resources dwindle and conflict rises.
Darfur is widely considered the first climate change war. Though the conflict stemmed from long-seated ethnic rivalries, a secondary but important issue was the lack of water in the region. This scarce resource was one reason for a continuation of the conflict; none of the warring parties wanted to give up the access to more resources, which could have been won by the expansion of their territory.
Then there is the imminent danger of rising water levels and the inevitable destruction of low-laying nations. Small countries such as the Maldives and Kiribati (near the Hawaiian Islands) face this danger, as do much larger nations like Egypt and the Philippines. The future of the citizens and governments of these states is yet to be determined. Should they be given land from neighboring countries for their citizens to live on? Would that undermine the sovereignty of those nations? The interactions of these fast disappearing nations with the international community pose vast problems. The resettlements could outnumber any current immigration seen today. The population of the Philippines alone is nearly 102 million; total world immigration for 2011 was estimated as 214 million. Imagine the effects on world politics of adding an additional 102 million immigrants to the annual total.
Global warming will be difficult if not impossible to reverse; however, we should encourage ecological initiatives to abate our negative impact. Furthermore, given the difficult future of a changing world system, climate change needs to be addressed as a serious, real and fast advancing political and social issue. The process of global warming is inevitable as we cannot just vacuum up the CO2 in the atmosphere, which has increased to the highest recorded levels in 2 million years — but we can prepare ourselves for the strenuous, politically uncertain and culturally unstable future of a warmer and potentially more conflict-ridden world.
If you would like to discuss more about this topic, you should come to the EPIIC symposium on "Conflict in the 21st Century" Feb. 22–26.
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Rebecca Dewey is a freshman who has not yet declared a major. Angela Lyonsjustus is a senior majoring in international relations.
