TikTok has been facing a looming ban for perhaps the last four years, seemingly managing to escape unscathed every time. However, its final fate may be decided very soon. In April 2024, President Joe Biden signed a law setting a one-year deadline for TikTok’s Chinese-based owner, ByteDance, to sell the U.S.-based portion of the app to a non-Chinese entity. Today, the Supreme Court will consider the constitutionality of this law, hearing oral arguments from TikTok’s lawyers and the Department of Justice.
Why exactly does the United States want to ban this app? Well, according to the DOJ, because TikTok is owned by a Chinese-based company, the data of U.S. citizens could be compromised; several lawmakers worried that the Chinese government would be able to access sensitive American data and use it to surveil Americans and manipulate public opinion. As such, in order to protect national security, the company should be banned.
However, according to TikTok, this is a direct violation of their freedom of speech, and their algorithm and practices are not unlike other social media apps. The company lost its initial legal effort in December 2024 when the lower court rejected their arguments, upholding the original law. If the Supreme Court agrees with the lower court’s ruling, then the process of shutting TikTok down will begin. However, if the Supreme Court strikes Biden’s law down as unconstitutional, then this Sunday’s deadline will be void.
What does this mean for the future? Well, TikTok won’t suddenly disappear from phones. Rather, because popular companies such as Google and Apple will be penalized for distributing the app, the app will disappear from app stores, preventing users from downloading or updating it. Eventually, TikTok will slowly degrade and become largely unusable.
There is a chance that President-elect Donald Trump could attempt to save the app –– however, this is made difficult because the ban is set for the day before his inauguration. Though Trump similarly attempted to ban the app during his first presidency, he has since become an avid supporter of the platform, even attempting to pause the start date of the ban. He could convince Congress to repeal the original law passed last year, though this seems unlikely as both the House and Senate passed the law with overwhelming support.
The sell-or-divest approach has stirred controversy, as many of TikTok’s primary users –– Gen Z –– aren’t particularly concerned about the Chinese government. Some simply believe that this ban is just a way for the government to monitor mass communication. “[They] know they can’t stop us from using all of social media,” TikToker Adam Aleksic said. “Instead, they can just try to limit us to the platforms they have the most control over.”
An unfortunate consequence of this ban may be the loss of income; several people have turned to TikTok as a means of financial stability. TikTok’s algorithm differs from other social media apps in that each new video is pushed to 300–500 users –– essentially, a brand new account could post a video that will potentially reach millions. As a result, many small businesses have been able to flourish, as their content has been able to reach a larger audience. In fact, 50% of TikTok users make a purchase after watching content. TikTok is a hot spot for business growth.
If the app is banned, the 7 million small businesses currently on it could lose $1 billion in revenue, and roughly 2 million creators could lose $300 million in earnings within just one month. Many of these influencers rely on several employees and hire lawyers, agents and accountants to review brand deals, manage their careers and monitor finances. And, because 84% of social media influencers are female, women are likely to bear the brunt of this loss.
Joanne Molinaro is a creator who built an entire brand around her account, @TheKoreanVegan. Amassing over 3 million followers between TikTok and Instagram, she was able to publish her own cookbook and quit her job as a full-time lawyer to pursue content creation. Now, the future looks bleak. There is no question that she will suffer losses. “[Social media] is like building real estate on sand,” she described, noting that after Biden signed the sell-or-ban law, she took in 30% less money from sponsors. “You just never know.”
On the flip side, this ban could see an increase in popularity in other competing social media apps, such as YouTube, Instagram and Facebook. As the app’s death looms, several creators have attempted to shift to other platforms and diversify their following. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done; cultivating a following can take time. Some of their TikTok followers may not follow them to alternative platforms. Furthermore, TikTok’s algorithm prioritizes short-form content. Other platforms’ priorities may vary, and creators may need to adjust their strategy. Social media is a fluid landscape–––success and stability is not always guaranteed.
While the most popular, already uber-wealthy influencers will likely be fine, unfortunately, the middle-class, small business owners –– essentially, the average creator –– are likely to suffer. Really, is that anything new?
