In 2024, the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawerence was handed one of the most lucrative contracts in NFL history at the time: five years and $275 million. Yet, one year after inking the deal, both the Jaguars’ head coach and general manager were fired following the 2024–25 season. It turns out that giving your 25-year-old quarterback — who has only had one year of above-average play — a record-breaking contract while he’s coming off a season in which his passer rating dipped by seven points leaves your team with one of the worst records in the league and a quarterback still in decline. So naturally, the question arises: Does Lawerence deserve his contract? The answer is yes — but only if you can’t find a better or cheaper equivalent.
The year before Lawrence received his massive contract, he threw for 4,016 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions while completing 65.6% of his passing attempts. All of those statistics were worse than his previous season. His resulting passer rating of 88.5 ranked 21st overall among qualifying quarterbacks — not exactly good.
Can anyone on the market fare better than Lawrence? First, let’s establish some parameters for comparison: Eligible quarterbacks must have earned starting jobs in free agency — not through injuries to assumed starters (namely, 2024 Sam Darnold is excluded), must have actually been free agents and must have started at least six games in their first year with their new team.
So, how many quarterbacks fit that description? Since 2020 — when Lawerence was still at Clemson — several have, including Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Gardner Minshew, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. From legends like Brady and Rivers to career journeymen like Bridgewater (twice) and Mariota, it’s certainly a diverse sample. In their first seasons with their new teams, more than half of these quarterbacks posted a passer rating higher than Lawrence’s 88.5.
The data seems to suggest it is statistically likely that the Jacksonville Jaguars could find a starting quarterback in free agency who’s a better passer than Lawrence. But at what cost? None of the quarterbacks signed contracts within $10 million per year of Lawrence’s deal. Geno Smith, for example, cost only $3.5 million on a one-year contract before earning a Pro Bowl selection with a new contract paying him tens of millions during a lucrative extension with the Seattle Seahawks. The highest-value free agency signing was Cousins, who joined the Atlanta Falcons for $45 million per year. Even the biggest free agency bust — Garoppolo — who failed to come within 10 passer-rating points of Lawrence, earned only half of Lawrence’s annual salary. To put that gap into perspective: if you added the salary of the NFL’s second-highest-paid safety to Garoppolo’s contract, the total would nearly equal Lawrence’s earnings.
Let’s compare the two players closest to Lawrence in passer-rating in the 2023–24 season: Mariota (88.2) and the aforementioned Cousins (88.6). Both quarterbacks have since been usurped as starters. After Mariota’s messy breakup from Atlanta after the 2022–23 season, he has started only two games. Cousins, meanwhile, has since moved down on the depth chart and was replaced by Micheal Penix Jr., also on the Falcons, and remains a costly, uncertain presence on their payroll.
So, why pay Lawrence if he’s as replaceable as the data suggests? It is worth noting that Lawrence is a pro bowler who has won a playoff game and brought some quarterback stability to the Jaguars, a team whose history has long lacked a great one. The most likely reason: Lawrence was only 24 years old when he signed his extension. The organization likely believed that he could take the next step — elevating the Jaguars into Super Bowl contention. The Jaguars probably saw his physical tools and hoped the coaching staff could unlock his potential.
Where does this leave Lawrence now? He’s certainly on the hot seat. The team traded up in the draft to acquire offensive weapon Travis Hunter, and if Lawrence cannot deliver, his tenure as starter could be short-lived. Because of the size of his contract, trading or cutting him would create a severe salary-cap penalty. The good news for Lawrence is that the Jaguars’ new head coach, Liam Coen, is a supposed ‘quarterback whisperer,’ brought in specifically to revitalize the offense. For now, at least, it seems the ownership still believes in Lawrence.
