The re-election of President George W. Bush last week means that this country will most likely experience a continuation of its current foreign policy. We will stay the course in Iraq, where over 135,000 members of various branches of the military are serving in an effort to bring peace and self-government to the troubled region. In addition, we are engaged in an ongoing peacekeeping and nation-building mission in Afghanistan, where some 18,000 American troops are engaged.
While the numbers of Americans engaged in combat and routine operations abroad certainly does not begin to reach the total number of active and reserve duty soldiers available to American commanders, military planners have begun to feel the strain as operations in the Middle East drag on longer than planned. The extensive mobilization of reservists and national guardsmen (approximately 40 percent of the total presence in the region) is a testament to the personnel problems inherent in the region.
President Bush has insisted that we will not reinstate the draft in America, and for the time being, there is no reason to think that he is being untruthful. More Iraqi troops are being trained by the day and Afghanistan is slowly transforming into a democracy, albeit one with tenuous control outside Kabul. So far North Korea has not taken an overly offensive posture with its likely nuclear weapons and Iran seems to be short of possessing offensive nuclear capability.
That said, our current military forces are sufficient - in a static world. If the past few years have demonstrated anything, however, it is that our world is much more fluid and unpredictable than we often want it to be. Our continued reliance on extensions of tours of duty for citizen soldiers combined with recent failure to meet recruiting goals could spell problems for the United States Military if trouble erupts.
Even without a major catastrophe, our military is showing itself to be incapable of responding effectively to small crises where we have traditionally provided help. In Haiti, for example, the failure of the American leadership to forcefully intervene has unfortunately led to continued chaos and human suffering on the island. We have not intervened to stop what Colin Powell labeled genocide in Sudan. Clearly the situation is critical, and aggressive moves by any of our adversaries might push this nation's forces past the personnel breaking point.
President Bush can avoid these problems, but he and his administration, as well as the Republican-led congress, need to take immediate action. Unless incentives for joining the military, such as scholarships and salaries, are raised, we will not see more Americans voluntarily signing up for duty. We cannot expect to get help from other nations in Iraq unless we take a more diplomatic route in dealing with our traditional allies in Europe and in the Middle East. If the GOP fails to accomplish either of these tasks and trouble breaks out, this nation may be forced to turn to involuntary service, an option which is attractive to no one.
