President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party won the parliamentary election on Sunday, capturing 70 percent of the seats.
But outside observers are calling the election unfair, saying that strong party control over the media and the recent incarcerations of journalists and vocal dissenters influenced the outcome.
This week I spoke with Assistant Political Science Professor Oxana Shevel about the results, the future of Russia and what this election could mean for U.S.-Russian relations. Shevel, an expert in the politics of East-Central Europe and of the former Soviet Union, is new to Tufts this semester.
Jamie Bologna: What does United Russia's victory on Sunday mean for the future of Russian democracy?
Oxana Shevel: First of all, [Russian] elections are not ... considered entirely free and fair by the international community. ... The interesting thing here is that violations are taking place not so much on Election Day, but [throughout] the whole campaigns, disenfranchising the opposition to a great extent.
This latest election is in some ways, perhaps, the finishing touch on the long process of consolidating executive power and [diminishing] democracy in Russia. It's not a very optimistic outcome.
JB: After his term ends in March 2008, do you think Putin will try to stay in office?
OS: There are many different scenarios out there, but nobody really thinks that President Putin would be content to just retire. ... He would definitely want to remain a player, but the question is: How is he going to accomplish that? Putin has not given us an indication of which option he would choose.
He could amend the constitution to allow him to stay for a third [four-year] term, but he clearly said he's not willing to do that, and here I think the consideration for him is to maintain some legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the Western communities. ...
[A second option] - and we shouldn't rule [it] out at this point - is to divulge some of the power from the presidency to the parliament, and then he could remain in charge as the prime minister given that his party now has a constitutional majority in the parliament. It is a possibility, but it is also risky because once the power is divulged to the parliament, here comes the question of how one keeps control over the numerous deputies. ...
Another possibility is for him to step down entirely, allowing somebody like a caretaker president to assume office for a short time and then step down, [and] Putin could then step back in. This cannot be ruled out at this point, but there is also uncertainty associated with it. What if the so-called caretaker president doesn't step down? This [issue] of what happens in Russia after March when President Putin's term expires is a big question mark.
JB: President Bush spoke on the phone with Putin this week and he expressed his concerns over the legitimacy of the election. How does this election affect U.S.-Russian relations?
OS: Things have been getting [more tense] for some time, but I don't think these latest elections signify a major turnaround in U.S.-Russian relations. The U.S. has been frustrated with the lack of democratic progress in Russia, [but] at the same time there is little the United States could do or is willing to do.
The U.S. is talking about ways [of] strengthening the prospects of [democracy] ... and the Russian opposition groups are the ones that could benefit [from] support and assistance. But this is precisely the kind of issue President Putin has used effectively in his campaigns, basically arguing to the Russian people that the opposition parties are being nothing more than puppets to Western governments.
JB: Do you think relations will continue to cool?
OS: This is somewhat difficult to say, as there will be changes in the top executive offices in both the U.S. and Russia. It is possible that [with] the new administration in the United States and a new administration in Russia, something else might transpire.
JB: Seventy-two percent of Russians support Putin right now, according to a recent poll. Does this strong support stem from economic issues?
OS: We have to keep in mind two things. One reason President Putin is so popular is because the economic status of the average Russian has improved under his leadership over the last [several] years.
But we should also keep in mind that his popularity is in large part created by the news media, especially the TV. [Television] in Russia is being severely controlled by the presidential administration, so any voice of the opposition or any politician who could become popular is not allowed to become popular. And at the same time President Putin's popularity is being drummed up by the media and Russian TV channels.
JB: What do you think is next for Russia?
OS: We need to see what actually happens - if and how a transfer of power happens in March. I personally would like to remain optimistic. I know a lot of people who study Russia take the view [that] this authoritarianism is part of Russian culture ... and basically instances of liberalization [under] Yeltsin and Gorbachev are anomalies. I don't take this view, so I think there is a possibility that Russia can democratize.
Jamie Bologna is a senior majoring in political science and Spanish. He can be reached at james.bologna@tufts.edu.
