It is difficult to shed any new light on the role of mid-major teams during the NCAA Tournament.
Big upsets at the hands of smaller schools are a huge part of the event's appeal and each year brings a crop of dangerous, non-power conference teams. Some of these lesser-known teams can and do shift the course of the entire season in 40 minutes of play.
Due to the March successes of teams such as the Gonzaga Bulldogs, mid-major teams have received more and more media attention in recent years. This newfound exposure has contributed to greater respect in the polls, which a couple of teams have capitalized on this year. The Butler Bulldogs and Drake Bulldogs have had good reason to wag their tails, having spent a large portion of this season in the Top 25.
Butler, out of the typically formidable Horizon League, has sustained the momentum gained from a Sweet 16 appearance last year. Conference preseason Player of the Year A.J. Graves leads the Bulldogs, currently ranked No. 8 in the latest AP poll. Graves epitomizes the typical, perimeter-oriented style of mid-major basketball with his 216 three-point attempts; he has made 76 of them, good for a .352 percentage.
Butler has run-and-gunned its way to a 24-2 record, but it faces a big test this Saturday when it hosts Missouri Valley Conference leader Drake.
The other Bulldogs have already clinched the MVC regular season title, a remarkable feat considering the conference is home to past Cinderellas such as the Southern Illinois Salukis and Creighton Blue Jays. At No. 16 in the latest AP poll, Drake has an extremely balanced scoring attack with four players averaging at least nine points per game. Drake is another example of mid-major style, boasting a .376 team shooting percentage from beyond the three-point line.
Saturday's Bulldog vs. Bulldog match-up in Indianapolis ought to be a fantastic shooting display and will go a long way in determining which of this year's two best mid-major teams will be the trendy bracket buster pick come March.
While Butler and Drake play in mid-major conferences, their cushy poll positions eliminate any chance of flying under the radar this March. The quintessential Cinderella teams are those that receive little attention from the media and pollster prior to the Big Dance. Here are a few teams that could shock the basketball world next month.
The last time the Kent State Golden Flashes made any noise in March was in 2002. As a No. 10 seed, Kent State upset its way to the Elite Eight, eliminating the likes of the Pittsburgh Panthers and Alabama Crimson Tide.
Currently at the top of the Mid-American Conference, the Golden Flashes seem poised for another tournament run. Kent State is 21-5, with two of those losses coming to the non-conference powerhouses North Carolina Tar Heels and Xavier Musketeers.
Results aside, Kent State has run with the big boys. If they are able to stay on top of the MAC and secure a tournament bid, look for the Golden Flashes to cause some trouble in the first round.
Out West are the Cal State Fullerton Titans. Atop the Big West alongside the Cal State Northridge Matadors, CSF has the help of one of the country's most unheralded stars. Junior guard Josh Akognon is averaging an even 20 points per game this year, placing him among the likes of O.J. Mayo and Tyrese Rice in the national scoring rankings.
The Titans have also received help from senior Frank Robinson, a 6-foot-4 guard who averages 16.2 points per game to go along with 6.8 boards. With such a strong, two-pronged backcourt attack, look for the Titans to win the Big West Conference and to possibly bust some brackets afterwards.
When it comes to postseason play, the Ivy League has been pretty predictable as of late. Since the conference has no tournament of its own, its NCAA Tournament representative each year is the team that finishes at the top of the league standings. The Penn Quakers and Princeton Tigers have claimed at least a share of the conference title every year since 1988. That year, like this one, the Cornell Big Red was the team to beat. This year, Cornell posts an 8-0 conference record going into the last weeks of league play. Having gained experience in road losses to the Duke Blue Devils and Syracuse Orange, Cornell would have no problem playing spoiler next month.
Finally, there's the Virginia Commonwealth Rams. Currently leading the Colonial Athletic Conference, the Rams are no strangers to pulling big upsets, having toppled Duke last year in the first round of the NCAA Tourney. With a pair of upperclassmen guards, Eric Maynor and Jamal Shuler, averaging at least 16 points per game, VCU is primed to establish itself as a perennial upset contender.
If all of these teams are able to win their conference titles, make sure to keep them in mind while filling out your bracket. Then again, a true Cinderella almost always comes out of nowhere, making any predictions a suspect endeavor. Either way, we know that next month a few teams will rise out of obscurity and fit the slipper perfectly.
