Historically, the NESCAC Tournament has not been friendly to the Middlebury men's basketball team. In the seven years since the tournament's inception, the Panthers have made four trips to the league playoffs and have been bounced from the first round all four times.
On the other side of the coin are the Williams Ephs. The Panthers' Western Mass. traveling partners have never missed a conference tournament, have claimed the title three times, and in 2003, they rode the momentum of a NESCAC title straight to a national championship celebration in Salem, Va. Long story short, the Ephs have been heavyweights - historically.
With this year's conference tournament set to tip off Saturday afternoon, the question at hand is whether history is about to change.
As the two teams prepare for a first-round meeting this weekend, the Panthers have found a new role - the favorite. They set a new school record for wins in a season last weekend - a 75-71 win over Wesleyan on Friday was the team's 18th - and after a first-round overtime loss to Colby as a No. 4 seed last year, they look for redemption this time around from the No. 3 spot, also a program best.
"Coming off of last season, where we hosted a game and lost in overtime to Colby, I think we have the experience of being at home and playing in an important game," Middlebury coach Jeff Brown said. "We obviously have a tough opponent in Williams, but I think our guys are confident and well prepared."
"We feel a lot more experienced," added junior Aaron Smith, who won NESCAC Player of the Week honors on Feb. 11. "Last year, it was an accomplishment just to make it and get a home playoff game. But now, anything but winning the NESCAC championship would be a failure in our minds."
The Panthers' road to that championship begins against a Williams' team that won the conference title last season. Their two co-captains, then-juniors Chris Shalvoy and Chris Rose, combined for 38 points in a 70-69 upset of eventual national champion Amherst in last year's final. The Ephs have had their ups and downs this season - they started off 12-0 but later hit a five-game losing skid once the NESCAC season rolled around - but come tournament time, they're sure to be up.
"I really expect them to come out on fire," Smith said. "Shalvoy and Rose are seniors who have a lot of experience in the tournament, and this is their senior run - they have to come out firing. It's going to be a battle. I think it'll come down to the last possession."
This season, the Panthers beat the Ephs 63-60 on Feb. 2 for their first win in Williamstown since 1989. Junior guard Ben Rudin stepped up for 14 points and six assists in that game, while rookies Ashton Coghlan and Kevin Kelleher added 12 and 10 points, respectively. In the rematch, the Panthers look to Rudin to neutralize the sharp-shooting guard Shalvoy, while Rose is met by Middlebury senior co-captain Andrew Harris, a 6-foot-2 swingman and the team's leading scorer.
"I think we match up very well with them," Brown said. "Our first game was a very even game that came down to the last two minutes, and the year prior, we had a similarly close game, decided in the last five. A lot of times whichever team can execute the best, limit their turnovers and make a couple plays down the stretch is the team that comes out on top."
Middlebury won the teams' first meeting without Harris, one of the league's deadliest three-point shooters and a team leader on both ends of the floor. Harris missed seven games in January with an injury, and the Panthers were swept in a home NESCAC weekend with Amherst and Trinity on Jan. 25 and 26. With Harris now healthy, the Panthers are a changed squad.
"Where I see the difference is that he really takes the pressure off of some other players," Brown said. "Our opponents really make an effort to guard Andrew at the three-point line, limit his touches and guard him at the perimeter, and that gives some other players some opportunities to drive."
Those other players include Smith, a 6-foot-6 post player averaging nearly a double-double with 14.2 points and 8.1 rebounds a night; Rudin, a three-year starting point guard among the league's top 10 in assists and steals; and a pair of forwards, senior co-captain Mike Walsh and sophomore Tim Edwards, who have shown tremendous improvements over the course of the season.
Walsh in particular has broken out in his senior year, joining Smith in the NESCAC's top 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding. The Panthers have developed a two-headed monster in the paint with Walsh and Smith patrolling the boards, and both have played key roles down the stretch.
"They've really been huge," Brown said. "Most years we've had to go with just one big strong player and four perimeter players. But having both Michael and Aaron, they're both really strong in the post."
The Panthers have proven they can beat Williams - they did it on the road three weeks ago, and they have the talent to do it again. But that's only the first step toward the ultimate goal of a NESCAC title. And with the defending national champs lurking at 22-2, 9-0 in the NESCAC and seeded No. 1 as usual, all roads to the conference title lead through Amherst.
"I think Amherst is tremendous," Brown said. "Being ranked No. 1 in the nation, and coming off of a championship last year, I think they have all the parts. But if you look at their schedule, a lot of teams have played Amherst really close ... I think there are teams in our league that are capable."
"All the pressure's on them, really," Smith added. "They have their 9-0 season going; we have nothing to lose."
