It's too early to be thinking about the general election, which is not stopping me in the slightest.
With Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) the near-certain Republican nominee, obsessives like me have taken to wondering how the general election will go down between McCain and either Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) or Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.). I think it's a fair bet that it'll be a hard-fought battle regardless. That said, here are some thoughts:
No matter whom the Democrats choose, McCain will play up the "experienced and battle-tested" angle. Voters can't ignore his age and time spent in Washington - so instead of pretending nobody notices, he'll put it front. If Obama gets the nomination, you can bet that the election will come down to a battle of youth versus age, the past versus the future.
The more the electorate is concerned with national security, the stronger this contrast will work for McCain. In times of danger, voters are hesitant to entrust a fresh face with their safety.
When that charge inevitably comes up against him, Obama would be wise to stick to a line he's used well in the past: "Nobody had a longer resume than Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld." It's a great line because it uses the public's disgust with Cheney and Rumsfeld's handling of Iraq to attack the notion that experience is an automatic virtue. Obama will also do all he can to tie McCain to the unpopular Bush administration, and he'll argue repeatedly that all of McCain's vaunted experience is useless if it's used in the service of a misguided philosophy.
Another critical factor will be whom the candidates select for their Vice President.
Back when Hillary was the favorite for the nomination, analysts assumed she had an open field of VP candidates. After Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Clinton, many speculated that she had cut a deal with him: Give me your endorsement for the crucial Iowa caucuses, and we'll put you on the shortlist for Vice President.
Those days are over. If Clinton manages to secure the nomination, it will be after a long and bloody knife fight. To heal the wounds and soothe the bad feelings over Obama's brutal defeat, Clinton will have no choice but to put Obama on the ticket. His supporters could stay home on Election Day otherwise, depending on how ugly the Clinton campaign gets in its removal of the Obama problem.
Obama's Veepstakes use a different calculus. If you're giving a list of possible VPs to the Obama campaign, here are your three watchwords: experienced, white and male. Experience is essential. When your candidate is perceived, rightly or wrongly, to be new to the world of foreign affairs, the image of a sage older counsel standing behind him is reassuring to the voters. White, because, frankly, one black man will be asking the electorate for a lot as it is. A male is not quite as essential, but it reinforces the tough-on-national-security image Obama's VP needs to project.
McCain's choice will receive more scrutiny for the simple reason that he's the oldest man ever to be nominated for President, and as much as the McCain campaign trots out John's 95-year old mother, the possibility of his death in office will be very real. Consequently, McCain will need to make sure voters are comfortable with his VP as a possible POTUS, which is why all this talk of Huckabee as VP is bunk. Look for a young, energetic, conservative governor from a swing state to shore up McCain's problems with the Republican base.
When he picks Tim Pawlenty, governor of Minnesota, you heard it from me first.
Michael Sherry is a junior majoring in political science. He can be reached at Michael.Sherry@tufts.edu.
