I've always felt you learn more about your baseball franchise in the winter months than you do during the season. You learn about the character of the organization and the direction in which it is going. You get a peek into the minds of GMs when they show you just how they value players around the game. You get a feel for the coming year. Here are a few November observations that tell you a lot about the teams involved.
1. The really good general managers in baseball all do deals in a similar way. When Billy Beane traded for Matt Holliday earlier this week, was this a move people saw coming? Was this a trade on the rumors page of ESPN.com? No, because that's just how good GM's work. They are deliberate and calculated. When they act, they act quietly and quickly. The first anyone should hear of a deal is the announcement of its completion.
2. An intriguing rumor that has been floating around puts Jake Peavy in a Cubs uniform. A rotation of Peavy, Zambrano, Harden, Lilly and Dempster is just silly. But it's a move that smells of desperation. How can you blame the Cubbies? They had the best record in the NL and seemed poised for a shot at the Billy Goat but ended up looking like a team overmatched come playoff time. I don't believe in curses, but I just don't see Peavy putting them over the top. At the same time, if they can put together a package that will satisfy the Padres (they probably can't), then this is a deal they must make.
3. When Brian Cashman signed on for three more years with the Yankees, I immediately knew three things about my beloved team. One, C.C Sabathia will not be in pinstripes next year; two, Mark Texiera will; three, the Yankees will be in the World Series in 2010 or 2011. I really do believe in him.
4. The dismantling of the San Diego Padres has been ruthless. They are on the verge of trading Jake Peavy just weeks after parting with the face of their franchise, Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman, the league's all-time saves leader and one of the game's true "good guys," didn't even get a face-to-face with the front office before reports were released that they didn't want him back. The more I read about this story, the more respect I lose for Kevin Towers.
5. The way the Dodgers spend money is really strange to me. They're just a team that I can't really get a feel for. All I know is this: Manny Ramirez can single-handedly keep the Dodgers competitive. Those crazy numbers from the second half of last year weren't a fluke. As strange as it sounds, we might see Manny Ramirez' true baseball potential fulfilled at the age of 38.
6. The Rays are pretty much staying put this offseason, and it's the right move. They have tons of talent in place and more on the way. But there's no doubt in my mind that this team is going to get off to a slow start in April. The ingredients are there: a young team, an overworked staff and a World Series hangover. But then sometime in mid-May they'll rattle off fifteen out of sixteen on their way to another playoff berth.
7. Although it might not seem like it, the Tigers are as far away from competing as anybody. After their World Series run in 2006, Dave Dombrowski thought he had two young pitchers who he could build around in Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman. Neither pitcher has lived up to that season, and because of it, the Tigers are a mediocre team full of overpaid veterans. And now, due to last year's trading and signing of Miguel Cabrera, it's almost impossible to think about rebuilding.
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