AFC Championship Preview

    Two of the league's most prolific defenses will converge on muddy Heinz Field Sunday evening, with both their seasons and a Super Bowl trip on the line. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens — two AFC North rivals ranked first and second respectively in defense in both scoring and yardage — will meet for the third time this season with everything at stake. Both will have to look to their young offenses to carry them to the Feb. 1 Super Bowl.
    Pittsburgh, the only team left in the playoffs without an avian mascot, is coincidentally the lone home team to win its quarterfinal matchup. The Steelers come into Sunday's contest having won seven of their last eight games, including last week's 35-24 drubbing of the San Diego Chargers. Likewise, Baltimore has won seven out of its last eight contests, the lone loss coming at the hands of the Steelers on Dec. 14 on a touchdown with 43 seconds left. Pittsburgh also won the two teams' other meeting in Week 4 by a score of 23-20 in overtime.
    Should the Ravens, a slim underdog, have any hope of moving on to face the winner of the NFC Championship tilt between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals, they will have to establish their power running game early and rely on the youthful arm of rookie quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco will put his brief NFL experience to the test while facing a Pittsburgh defense with a history of unkind treatment of the opposing team's offensive stars.
    In nine games between the Steelers and Ravens since Dec. 26, 2004, no running back from either team has reached the century mark on the ground, and Pittsburgh has ceded just an average of 89 rushing yards per game since 2000. But this time around, Baltimore will attempt to break the trend with the fourth-best rushing attack in the league, as the combination of Le'Ron McClain, Willis McGahee and Ray Rice have racked up 148.5 ground yards per game.
    The Ravens have devised a system in which Flacco never has to make a big throw and never has to be the hero; his defense has taken care of that for him. All the first-year has to do is efficiently march the offense down the field for the occasional score, and he has done that to a T thus far. Through 18 games this season, Flacco has thrown zero touchdown passes in seven games and has yet to reach the 300-yard mark. On the other hand, in 12 games he did not throw an interception and completed 60 percent of his passes, earning a quarterback rating above 90 seven times.
    What has been most impressive about Flacco is his ability to remain composed during the game's toughest moments. In the overtime loss to Pittsburgh in Week 4, Flacco still executed a 76-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter to push the game into overtime, despite being sacked five times prior. The constant pressure of the Steelers defense got to him in the 13-9 loss in Week 15, however, as Flacco posted a miserable 22.2 QB rating. Expect Flacco to try to air it out once or twice during the evening — his QB rating on passes of more than 20 yards was 90.4 on the season — but the majority of the offense will be devoted to letting the 260-pound McClain do the dirty work.
    Recently, Baltimore's most highly publicized aspect — and its saving grace when the offense falters — has been its terrifying defense, headed by All-Pros Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. The two teamed up with the rest of the ball-hawking Ravens to solidify a quarterfinal win over the Tennessee Titans, coercing the veteran offense into three turnovers. In two playoff games, Baltimore has posted a plus-seven turnover margin, while Reed has 10 interceptions in his last eight games.
    Baltimore's defense might be handicapped if linebacker Terrell Suggs, who has a sprained shoulder, is held out of certain series, leaving a great load on the shoulders of Lewis. A big key to the game for the Ravens will be blitzing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who, while built like a linebacker, is no match for the relentless onslaught of a Baltimore pass rush.
    The hopes for the Steelers' offense rest almost squarely on Roethlisberger and his ability to withstand the blitz. He seems to have recovered from a spinal-cord concussion suffered in Week 17, evidenced by his divisional performance against the Chargers (65 percent completion percentage and no interceptions), but San Diego hardly has the opportunistic defense Baltimore has. Roethlisberger is aware that he cannot afford to make any mistakes on Sunday because more often than not, the Ravens turn those into touchdowns and insurmountable margins.
    Running backs Willie Parker and Mewelde Moore, despite putting on a show against San Diego, have relatively no shot of reaching the 100-yard mark in the game, as the Ravens have not allowed anyone to do so in their last 35 contests. The backs must find their niche as pass-blockers, allowing Roethlisberger more time in the pocket to find the open receivers streaking across the field, hopefully out of the reach of Reed.
    On the defensive end, the Steelers hold the edge, despite the heralded big names on the opposite sideline. Linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are at times unstoppable, and with the offensive linemen keen on stopping them, interior linebacker James Farrior and strong safety Troy Polamalu are free to blitz at will.
    In the last meeting between the two teams, Pittsburgh intercepted Flacco twice and limited Baltimore to just 202 yards of total offense. In eight out of their last 12 games, the Steelers have held their opponents to 10 or fewer points, certainly a testament to the skill of their defensive unit.
    Overall, the Steelers look like the safe bet in this contest. They are peaking at the right time, especially considering the way the offense was firing against the Chargers last week, and their defense can stop the run and pressure the young Flacco into mistakes. That said, Flacco and the Ravens' offense have been doubted throughout the season but have nevertheless continued to succeed, so do not be surprised if Baltimore squeaks out a close one thanks to big plays by its defense and the clutch leg of kicker Matt Stover.