When it comes to Major League Baseball's postseason, several crucial factors that differ from the regular season can make or break a team's World Series hopes.
The series are short, sample sizes are small and there is little margin for error across the board, especially by the pitching staff. One bad start from a staff ace and a team can find itself in an insurmountable hole. One blown save by a closer in a tight game and the momentum can swing entirely into the other team's dugout. Hence, having a strong front-end of the rotation and two dominant relievers — preferably with postseason experience — is a pivotal advantage.
Pitching is especially crucial, given that offensive production in October can be a crapshoot.
"One or two guys swinging hot bats can win the series for you," Philadelphia Phillies reliever Scott Eyre told the Daily. "It's hard to talk about consistency when you have such a short span of games."
Eyre has been here before, capturing a Series ring with the Phillies last season, and he believes the squad has what it takes to become the first to win consecutive titles since the New York Yankees celebrated three in a row from 1998-2000.
"We have basically our entire roster back from last season, and you can't discount what the experience of having been there means," Eyre said. "We lost Pat Burrell, but Raul Ibanez has replaced him real well, and we now have Cliff Lee in our rotation, which is a huge boost."
The Phillies also have 2008 World Series and NLCS MVP Cole Hamels, who pitched as though he had ice water in his veins throughout last year's championship run. The 25-year-old southpaw may have had a rocky 2009 campaign, but it's hard to discount a guy who went a combined 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts last year.
"When Cole and Cliff are going good, they can beat anyone in baseball," Eyre said.
And that's not to mention the Phillies' prolific offense, which led the NL with 820 runs and 224 homers and ranked just behind their divisional series opponent — the Colorado Rockies — with a .781 team OPS.
The Phillies have a fine shot at taking home the pennant thanks to two dominant left-handed starters and the deepest lineup in the NL. But they could falter with a shaky bullpen, anchored by closer and X-factor Brad Lidge. If Lidge can somehow snap out of a disastrous funk that saw him go 0-8 with a 7.21 ERA and 11 blown saves during the regular season, then Citizens Bank Park is likely to host yet another Fall Classic.
"Our chances are as good as anybody's, and everyone on this team has confidence in everyone else — including Lidge," Eyre said.
But the Rockies — a phenomenal 72-40 since trailing the NL West on June 1st — will be a formidable opponent in the first round, as they boast a dynamic lineup that led the NL with a .784 OPS. Manager Jim Tracy also has the benefit of a burgeoning young ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, who has the type of power arsenal that historically breeds dominance in October, and a deep bullpen, with closer Huston Street (35 of 37 in save opportunities) and trade-deadline acquisition Joe Beimel (a lefty against whom Philadelphia's Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are a combined 5-for-22) leading the way.
However, a lack of depth could be Colorado's undoing, as its playoff chances hinge on the performance of the starting pitchers behind Jimenez. Jason Marquis has playoff experience but has tailed off badly after an All-Star first half. Aaron Cook is coming off an injury and had a mediocre campaign by his standards. Jorge de la Rosa is trying to overcome a groin strain and is subject to fluctuations in performance that can make him phenomenal one night and putrid the next.
The other NLDS pits the St. Louis Cardinals against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that matchup, St. Louis enjoys an advantage, even though the men in blue had the best regular-season record in the NL.
"[Manager Tony] La Russa gets the best out of the Cardinals; they really play to their max for him," Eyre said. "But the Dodgers are a really strong, balanced team too."
La Russa's squad is powered by a pair of one-two punches: the duo of MVP-candidates Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday in the lineup and the tandem of Cy Young hopefuls Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter in the rotation.
The Cardinals can win because they have the best and deepest pitching staff of any NL team, with sinkerball whiz Joel Piñeiro behind the two aces. The trouble spot for St. Louis, however, is the recent downfall of closer Ryan Franklin, who has seen his luck run out and his 0.79 first-half WHIP balloon to 1.70 since the All-Star break.
Though the Dodgers don't have the frontline starting pitching that the Cardinals bring, they have a deeper lineup, including Matt Kemp, one of the most underrated players in the league.
Outfielders Kemp, Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez combined to slug 76 home runs this season, and there is speed and power up and down manager Joe Torre's batting order. The pitching staff hinges on veteran Randy Wolf and phenom Clayton Kershaw. If those two lefties can hold at bay the Cardinals' sluggers, who, despite ravaging right-handed pitching, were held to a lowly .233 batting average by enemy southpaws, the Dodgers can send the Cardinals home.
But regardless of who emerges out of the other divisional series, Eyre remains confident in Philadelphia's chances to repeat as World Series champions.
"If we get to the World Series, [the Phillies] will be primed to take on whoever awaits," Eyre said.
