The old adage in any sport is that defense wins championships.
Over the past couple of years in NESCAC men's basketball, that saying has certainly proven to be true: Trinity, ranked third in the conference in scoring defense in 2007−08, won the NESCAC title that season, while Middlebury, ranked second in 2008−09, took home the prize last March.
So when Colby and Middlebury — the No. 1− and No. 2−ranked defensive teams in the conference this season with averages of 61.1 and 61.3 points allowed, respectively — face off in the NESCAC semifinals on Saturday, it seems that the winner would have history on its side when it takes part in the championship game the following day.
Of course, rarely has the NESCAC featured a team as good as Williams, which the winner of the Colby−Middlebury contest will presumably have to face in the finals. The Ephs, who are ranked No. 2 in the country with a 24−1 overall record, put together the first undefeated conference record in two years and led the conference with a scoring average of 86.6 points per game — nearly 11 points higher than NESCAC No. 2−seeded Amherst.
Williams, which boasts the No. 4 defense in the conference, also has averaged an astounding scoring margin of plus−21.0, significantly better than the Panthers (plus−14.0), the Mules (plus−7.2) and the Bates Bobcats (plus−1.7), which the Ephs should have no trouble disposing of in the semifinals.
Led by senior Blake Shultz, who leads in the league with 19.0 points per game, and sophomore James Wang, who comes in at No. 5 with 16.7 points and an additional 4.56 assists−per−contest, the Ephs are easy favorites to claim their first NESCAC championship in three years and fourth in school history.
But Middlebury coach Jeff Brown isn't too concerned with Williams — at least not yet. While the Panthers — ranked No. 6 in the nation on the strength of their 23−2 overall record — certainly have to be considered the favorite, Brown is still focused on the Mules and trumping them at their own game.
"I think it will be a defensive battle," Brown said. "They're very physical and sound defensively, and we've had a lot of success this year matching up with people and getting some stops. I really expect a hard−fought defensive struggle."
Though the Panthers handled the Mules relatively easily in their earlier meeting this year, winning 72−57, Brown does not think it will be so easy the second time around. In that game, the Mules shot just 19.4 percent in the first half — possibly a result of fatigue after playing Williams the night before — and allowed Middlebury to take a comfortable 37−18 lead into halftime.
"That sometimes happens on those back−to−back occasions," Brown said. "I certainly expect they'll be more efficient. They have some players, with [senior Adam] Choice and [junior Mike] Russell, who are very talented offensive players. We'll certainly have to give them some attention on the offensive end."
Indeed, the Mules' hopes very much rest on the shoulders of their accomplished upperclassmen. Choice comes into the game as the NESCAC's second−leading scorer with 18.8 points per game, while Russell averages 14.5 points and a conference−best 9.9 rebounds.
"They're certainly the team leaders in a lot of ways," Colby coach Richard Whitmore said. "[We've got] seven guys who've contributed in major ways. But Adam contributes in all ways and Mike, certainly on the boards, has been very, very effective."
In contrast, the Panthers lack superstar−type players but instead use a balanced attack that features three players who average double−digit points. However, all three of those players are underclassmen — sophomore Ryan Sharry and freshmen Jake Wolfin and Nolan Thompson — meaning the Panthers could be plagued by inexperience in the upcoming high−pressure playoff games.
"We're certainly confident, but the one thing I'm aware of is we're currently starting two freshmen, and sometimes with first−year players, you don't know how they'll react in a new environment like the NESCAC Tournament," Brown said. "But our group has been consistent all year long and we're certainly confident heading into the game against Colby."
Meanwhile, Whitmore is cautiously optimistic about his own team's chances. He knows that the odds of the Mules upending two nationally ranked top−10 squads on consecutive days are not exactly in their favor, but he is nonetheless hopeful that his team will put it all together when it matters most.
"I think we're probably going to have to play the best game of the year to win on Saturday and then play even better Sunday," Whitmore said. "It's certainly a monumental task, but we're excited and healthy and we're hoping we'll be ready to perform at the highest level."
