The story is all too familiar. With the regular season almost over, the No. 3 Texas Christian Horned Frogs and the No. 4 Boise State Broncos remain undefeated. Their top players are shining, their track records are flawless, and their wins are convincing. And yet, because they play in non-BCS conferences, they will likely be excluded from the National Championship Game — just like last year.
Once again, the essential questions in the ongoing debate about the BCS have come to the forefront. What does it take for a non-BCS conference team — a non-automatic qualifier, a "mid-major"— to earn a spot in the National Championship? Can an undefeated team from Texas Christian's Mountain West Conference (MWC) or Boise State's Western Athletic Conference (WAC) merit a higher ranking in the BCS rankings than an undefeated team from the SEC, the Pac-10 or the Big 12? Can an undefeated Texas Christian or Boise State rank higher than a one-loss Florida or LSU?
Last year, after the Horned Frogs and the Broncos completed their undefeated seasons, we learned the answers to these questions: No and no. Texas Christian finished fourth in the BCS standings and Boise State finished sixth — Florida, with one loss, was fifth — and the two met in the Fiesta Bowl, which Boise State won 17-10 after a fake punt led to the go-ahead touchdown. It was the first time two non-automatic qualifiers made a BCS game and the first BCS contest featuring two unbeaten teams that wasn't the championship.
By making the Fiesta Bowl, both teams earned national attention and respect, as indicated by their top-10 rankings in this year's preseason polls. They returned almost all of their starters and now they are exceeding expectations.
Boise State has both the second-best offense and defense in the nation. Led by a 507-yard passing performance from Heisman candidate Kellen Moore, the Broncos crushed Hawaii on Saturday, 42-7.
Texas Christian's defense, meanwhile, is first in the nation, allowing an average of 8.5 points per game. This weekend the buzz about a potential championship bid for Texas Christian heightened when they trounced then-No. 5 Utah 47-7.
But both teams seem to have hit a glass ceiling. The No. 3 Horned Frogs are left looking up at No. 1 Oregon and No. 2 Auburn, Pac-10 and SEC powerhouses, respectively, that should play for the championship if they win their remaining games. The No. 4 Broncos are stuck behind Texas Christian, and their remaining competition — the best of which is No. 21 Nevada — gives them little hope of surpassing TCU in the rankings, let alone making the title game.
Oregon could still lose to No. 18 Arizona, and Auburn has yet to play No. 12 Alabama, but Texas Christian and Boise State have little control over their own fates. While the MWC receives more respect as a conference than the WAC, both teams' non-BCS statuses mean they get snubbed come bowl season. For two straight years, they have done nothing but win, and yet the BCS leaves them no chance to prove they can beat the best on the biggest stage.
This is far from the first time an undefeated team may be short-changed. Utah, a member of the MWC, went undefeated in 2004 and 2008 but finished No. 6 both years. In 2007, Hawaii, a WAC member, ran the table and ranked No. 10. And the Broncos certainly remember 2006, when they went undefeated and finished No. 8 behind several two-loss teams.
In this skewed universe, every team loses. The mid-majors lose because they don't get the chance to control their destinies. Powerhouses like Oregon and Auburn lose because they can never truly prove they are the best teams in the land. The fans lose because they don't get to see a playoff.
But the conference commissioners who run the BCS are too stubborn to care. When they met in April 2008, they shot down the "plus-one" model of a four-team playoff, all but guaranteeing that the system will remain unchanged until at least 2014, when the current BCS contract with ESPN expires.
After all, why would the major conferences want anything to change? They rake in money from the same bowl games every year — the Rose Bowl almost always invites at least one Big Ten team, for example — and wouldn't want a playoff system to jeopardize that. In their minds, as long as they are making money, they are the winners.
More surprising is the fact that WAC commissioner Karl Benson also had no complaints at the 2008 meeting, and continues to support the current system. Boise State earns $18 million to be distributed amongst the WAC every time it makes a BCS game, regardless of whether that game is the National Championship. The powers that be in college football are businessmen who lack an incentive to change the status quo.
Fans would like to think that TCU and Boise State are facilitating the process of derailing the BCS and creating a playoff system even if they don't make the championship game. When two non-automatic qualifiers are this good for this long, something has to change, right?
Dream on.
