Welcome back to Bottom of the Ninth! We are now almost two weeks into the 2026 MLB season, and for many fans, including myself, overreactions are running rampant. With over four months to go until the postseason, it’s important to remember that there’s a lot of baseball left to play and plenty of time for your favorite team to turn things around.
However, if you are unfortunate enough to root for the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox or Washington Nationals, who all have playoff odds under 5%, you should already know that you won’t be seeing your team play baseball in September. Instead, you are likely waiting for the Aug. 3 trade deadline, when teams eliminated from playoff contention typically sell their short-term assets to contenders and look to rebuild for the future. However, as I discussed in my previous column, there are several factors that make a lockout likely next year, which could shorten or completely eliminate the 2027 season. This makes the months leading up to the trade deadline especially important for rebuilding teams this year, who have a prime opportunity to capitalize and sell high on their best players due to the increased leverage that the potential lockout creates.
While a lockout in 2027 could freeze transactions — eliminating free agent signings, trades and extensions — player contracts would still remain in effect. In other words, even if no games are played, players would still move through the final year of their deals and reach free agency as scheduled. That means players set to hit free agency after the 2027 season could reach the open market without getting the chance to be traded midseason, preventing rebuilding teams from getting value in return. As a result, this year’s trade deadline may represent the last real opportunity for those teams to sell off key pieces before they risk losing them for nothing.
For contending teams, however, acquiring those players would likely still require a trade package that values their potential contributions for both the remainder of 2026 and the 2027 season. This dynamic creates leverage for sellers, who have little to lose in the event of a 2027 lockout since they likely wouldn’t be contending anyway. On the other hand, contenders face increasing pressure to capitalize on a closing championship window for their World Series-hungry fans.
This favorable dynamic is something that teams are already beginning to take advantage of. The Washington Nationals and the St. Louis Cardinals, another rebuilding teams with slim postseason hopes, completed trades this offseason that exemplify what every team in their position should be doing right now. The Nationals traded star pitcher MacKenzie Gore to the Texas Rangers and the Cardinals traded All-Star infielder Brendan Donovan to the Seattle Mariners, with both receiving packages of prospects in return. Both of these players were set to hit free agency after 2027, meaning the Rangers and Mariners paid for two full years of team control regardless of whether the 2027 season even happens. While midseason trades typically consist of players on expiring contracts, I would expect teams that fall out of playoff contention before the Aug. 1 trade deadline to maximize their future returns by adding their 2027 free agents to the trade block. Some big names that fans should be keeping their eyes on include Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcántara, Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan.
While it’s rarely easy to watch your team give up proven stars for prospects who may never make it out of the minors, successful baseball front offices can’t afford to think this way. Instead, they need to focus on setting their team up for success five or even 10 years down the line instead of worrying about marginal improvements to an already lost season. This is especially important for small-market teams that don’t have the capacity to improve their rosters by signing big-name free agents every offseason. Developing a farm system of prospects who are under team control for many years to come is how teams complete a successful rebuild, and the best way to acquire them is by trading away short-term stars. With the uncertainty of a 2027 lockout hanging over the league, rebuilding teams can’t afford to wait — the clock is already ticking.
