As the 2010-11 regular season heads into its final week, numerous debates rage across the league: Is Derrick Rose really the MVP over Dwight Howard or LeBron James? Tom Thibodeau, Gregg Popovich or George Karl for Coach of the Year? Does any part of Shaq's body remain healthy? But while these theoretical and statistical queries occupy our minds, there is still a week's worth of games to be played and there are also playoff implications aplenty.
Here are three contenders' (and one not-so-contender's) storylines worth following as the season wraps up next week.
1. Have the Lakers peaked too soon?
The Los Angeles Lakers have played outstanding basketball since the All-Star break, compiling a 17-3 record since Kobe Bryant's dominating, maybe-tried-a-little-too-hard-for-an-All-Star-Game performance in Los Angeles. Oft-injured Andrew Bynum has been the key to the run for the Lakers, averaging nearly 13 rebounds a game, while the offense has found a beautiful balance. The Lakers have moved the ball extremely well, and having Lamar Odom at full health as a bench player, where he is most comfortable and productive, is enormous for Los Angeles.
A question floating around the league, however, is if the Lakers are using up their best basketball too early. Over the years, we've seen teams like last year's Miami Heat finish the regular season on an impressive run, only to sputter out in the playoffs. But with Phil Jackson at the helm (and not, say, Erik Spoelstra) and the seasoned, playoff-savvy crew that wears purple and gold ever-conscious of the demands of two extra months of basketball, don't count on this team resting on the laurels of its late-season dominance. With the No. 2 seed wrapped up, and the late-season charge to overtake the San Antonio Spurs all but a pipe dream now, expect the Lakers to decrease their starters' minutes and switch into playoff mentality.
2. Can the Spurs turn things around?
Question marks surround those very Spurs, whom the Lakers threatened to bypass after a recent six-game San Antonio losing streak. With all three stars — Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili — facing various ailments, San Antonio has seen its conference lead, which has been around eight all season, dwindle to just three and a half games as of April 6. With just four games remaining, the Lakers no longer pose a threat to actually take the top spot in the conference, but the Spurs should be concerned with the losing streak, during which they gave up an average of 108.3 points per game. Even for this year's Spurs team, which played a more free-flowing, up-tempo style than in years past, the defense was substandard. Most troubling of all, however, are the three straight games the Spurs lost at home to close out the losing streak after having lost just two home games over the entire season before that.
It will be interesting to see how San Antonio handles these final games and whether it wants to get their starters back in sync or opt for the resting alternative. Given Popovich's record of having little interest in the regular season, it would not be surprising to see heavy minutes for DeJuan Blair, George Hill and Gary Neal as the Spurs try to keep their veteran, many-time-champions rested and primed for a playoff run.
3. Same question for the Celtics
While the Boston Celtics have not had a losing streak as long as the Spurs', their struggles have been just as prominent. Boston is just 8-8 since March 9 and has not appeared the same since the trade of Kendrick Perkins to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Still, more than the Perkins move, it has been Shaquille O'Neal's inability to get his enormous self back onto the court that has hurt the Celtics. While Perkins only played in 12 games this season with the Celtics, Boston found success on the court with O'Neal, a four-time champion compiling a 28-9 record.
But with injuries to Shaq, his fellow O'Neal (Jermaine) and Nenad Krstic, the Celtics have lacked front court depth, and they rank 29th in the league in rebounding.
What has changed drastically since Perkins' departure, however, is the play of All-Star point guard Rajon Rondo, who has suffered from an ailment that could be described as post-Perkins depression. Since the trade, Rondo has averaged just nine assists per game, well below his average of 11.3. Beyond the statistics, Rondo has seemed lethargic on the court, has almost stopped penetrating entirely and has gotten routinely burned by lower-tier point guards like Kyle Lowry and Darren Collison.
Still, his recent 22-14-5 performance against the Spurs in an impressive 107-97 road victory for the Celtics displayed what makes Rondo such a special player. He is the engine that makes the Celtics go, and if he can regain his early season form, the Celtics should be able to turn the jets back on for another deep playoff run.
4. The Battle for Silver Lining
On the other side of the standings is the race for 30th place, between tweedle-dee (the Cleveland Cavaliers, currently 16-61) and tweedle-dum (the Minnesota Timberwolves, currently 17-61). The winner (though in this case, they will be losing more games) will have a 25 percent chance of being awarded the top pick in the 2011 draft; the team with the second-worst record's odds of getting the first pick drop to 19.9 percent.
The Timberwolves, losers of 11 straight games, may be without leading scorer and league-leading rebounder Kevin Love for the remainder of the season and will face a much tougher schedule than the Cavaliers. Cleveland appears to be "peaking" at exactly the wrong time, winning three of seven games, including an intensely satisfying victory against LeBron James and the Heat last Tuesday. For their marginal improvement, however, the Cavaliers may be jeopardizing their chances at the top pick, which would be a nail in the coffin for what has been arguably one of the most depressing seasons in NBA history.
