In October baseball, it is all about momentum. Its momentum that has driven Wild Card teams — such as the '02 Angels, '04 Red Sox and '07 Rockies — to glory, and it was momentum that catapulted the Giants from obscurity to a World Series title in 2010.
This year, the four teams in the race for the American League pennant have more momentum than a bullet train. The Detroit Tigers finished September an astounding 20-6, breaking away from the AL Central pack and even briefly challenging for the league's best record. They were one upped by the Texas Rangers, who won 14 of their last 16 to edge out the Tigers for home field advantage in the first round. The New York Yankees sealed up the league's best record early and will have the freshest legs come October.
But no one has more momentum than the Rays. The team no one expected to be here rattled off five straight wins — including a surge from seven runs down in the season finale — to grab the Wild Card. The Rays are now playing with house money, a scary thought for the other contenders.
So who has the best shot at making a run to the World Series? Let's find out:
Detroit Tigers (95-67) vs. New York Yankees (97-65)
If there is one player in the American League who can single-handedly determine how the next two weeks of baseball in the junior circuit will play out, it is the Tigers' ace Justin Verlander. While the Phillies may be the postseason's most dangerous team, the American League's most deserving MVP candidate arguably makes Detroit the scariest five-game series matchup. Call it the Verlander Effect.
Verlander has put together one of the finest seasons of all-time. He became the first 24-game winner since 2002 while tallying a 2.40 ERA, even after a rocky season-ending start against Baltimore. He struck out 250 while only walking 57, posting his lowest career walk total in the season in which he threw the most innings. He has also been at his best when the team needs him most: in the 21 games he pitched following a loss, he only dropped three.
But there is hope in the Bronx, as few teams have been as successful against Verlander this season as the Bombers. In two appearances against New York, Verlander has a 4.50 ERA and eight walks, his highest total against any single opponent. He earned no decisions in both appearances, making the Yankees one of only two teams Verlander faced this season that he did not record a win against.
The Tigers decided that Verlander will pitch in Game 1 and in Game 5, if necessary, as opposed to pitching Game 4 on three days' rest. The Yankees will counter with CC Sabathia in Game 1 but will pitch him again in Game 4, utilizing the type of three-man rotation that carried them to victory in the 2009 World Series.
The Tigers will likely need to win Game 1 to have a shot in this series, but if they do drop the opener it will be up to Doug Fister to save them from disaster in Game 2, when he will be matched up with Ivan Nova. Fister, who was traded to the Tigers at the deadline, is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, putting together an 8-0 record with a 0.65 ERA in his last eight appearances dating back to August 20. Detroit was often feeble outside of Verlander, but Fister has given the rotation some needed punch.
With the strong arms at the top end of the Tigers staff, the series may hinge on the mercurial bats of the Bombers. They lead the league in home runs but are only 7th in batting average. Only Robinson Cano hit above .300 for the season, and many of the team's big bats — including Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson — are prone to the occasional power outage.
Meanwhile, Detroit's offense is no longer the meek-looking side that struggled to put up runs in the early months. Led by a trio of big bats — Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Jhonny Peralta (.299, 21, 86) — the Tigers are third in the league in batting and fourth in runs scored. While the Tigers won't be able to capitalize on the Yankees lack of left-handed pitchers as well as some teams can, they are still more than capable of making waves with their bats.
If Verlander and Fister can win two of their three starts in the Bronx, the Yankees will need to take both games in Detroit to win the series. If the Yankees can get the game to the back end of their bullpen they will be hard to beat, but their hitting and pitching are too prone to the occasional bad game, giving the Tigers the opening to move on in five.
Tampa Bay Rays (91-71) vs. Texas Rangers (96-66)
This series, a rematch of last year's ALDS, could very well hinge on whether the Rays are just content with being here. Tampa Bay had to give up its entire bullpen and one of its two best position players in the offseason. The other missed 40 games. Yet with journeymen Kyle Farnsworth and Casey Kotchman — hitting .306 — leading the bullpen and offense, respectively, the Rays snuck past the imploding Red Sox to make it to the Promised Land of the playoffs.
Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, even if they come ready to play, this storybook tale has likely reached it end. The Rangers are the American League's strongest all-around team and will leave few holes for the cheeky Rays to sneak through.
The Rangers may not be the best at any specific aspect of the game, but they do it all well. They have a veritable ace in 16-game winner C.J. Wilson and a consistent number two in Derek Holland. Both are lefties, which will give headaches to Kotchman, Matt Joyce and Johnny Damon, three vital bats in the Rays' lineup. They also have one of the league's most proven closers, Neftali Feliz.
Offensively, Texas is just as strong. Michael Young — all but written off after being forced to become the team's designated hitter — is instead tearing up the ball, hitting at a .338 clip with 106 RBI. Josh Hamilton remains one of the league's most consistent bats when healthy, while Adrian Beltre proved that last year in Boston was no fluke. Maybe if the Sox still had him, they would be playing in this series.
If the Rays hope to pull yet another in a long line of upsets this season, they will need to do it with their pitching staff. James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson both boast sub-3.00 ERAs, while David Price is still arguably the ace of the staff. This rotation has led the Rays to the American League's second-best team ERA, and if Tampa Bay chooses to go with a three-man rotation it would likely fall second to Phillies as the postseason's best.
The Lone Star State has been good to the Rangers: They have the second-most home runs in baseball. If Texas can ride off with two home wins to start the series, it will be as good as done. Even if Tampa can steal one, they would likely need to finish Texas off at Tropicana Field to avoid a dangerous Game 5. It all feels like too tall of an order for the Rays, whose Cinderella run should reach its end in four games.
In the ALCS, the Verlander Effect will be marginalized by the length of the series. Even if the Tigers take care of business in both of his starts, it's doubtful that they will be able to get much more. Expect generally low-scoring games, with the Rangers putting together a few big innings to bury the Tigers. Expect Texas to represent the American League in the Fall Classic for a second straight season.
