Predicting the winner of the NFL Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) is always more challenging than guessing who will be awarded the Most Valuable Player.
Each year, the MVP is awarded to someone from a playoff-bound team who is either the most impressive quarterback of the season, or to a running back whose statistics are record-breaking and whose overall play was transcendent. To put this into perspective, the last player to win the award who wasn't a QB or RB was linebacker Lawrence Taylor in 1986.
On the defensive side of the ball it appears that there is much more parity, at least across positions. Defensive backs, linebackers, and defensive linemen have won the award almost equally. Players from teams that did not make the playoffs have been recognized as well. However, a deeper look into the past 10 DPOY winners reveals an outline with which we can handicap this year's candidates' chances of winning.
From 2001 to 2010, seven of the 10 winners came from playoff-bound teams whose team defense ranked in the top three in the league. The remaining three winners came from teams that did not make the playoffs and that finished outside of the top three defensively. The three outliers occurred because of spectacular individual efforts coupled with a lack of superstar performances from other individual players from that year's top units.
In 2001, New York Giants (7-9) defensive end Michael Strahan set the record for sacks with 22.5.
In 2004, Baltimore Ravens (9-7) safety Ed Reed led the league with nine interceptions, while setting the NFL record with 358 INT return yards, including a 106-yard pick six.
In 2006, Miami Dolphins (6-10) defensive end Jason Taylor produced one of the most statistically well-rounded seasons of the past few decades. Taylor recorded 13.5 sacks, two INTs, two touchdowns, and nine forced fumbles.
Fast-forwarding to this season, let's review the candidates in accordance with the pattern of the past 10 seasons. First, let's look at candidates from the league's top defenses. The top four, in order of points allowed per game, are the San Francisco 49ers, the Houston Texans, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
49ers: MLB Patrick Willis
Potential Historical Comparison: Brian Urlacher, 2005.
Urlacher was one of only two middle linebackers since 2001 to win the award. Like Urlacher in 2005, Willis is the unquestioned leader of the league's most dominant defense. While Willis is projected to finish outside of the top five in tackles — a key statistical indicator for middle linebackers — like Urlacher, who finished 13th, he makes up for it in other areas, namely forced fumbles, where Willis is second in the league with four. Additionally, one of Urlacher's greatest intangible traits was pure intimidation, which Willis certainly deploys being one of the hardest hitting linebackers in football.
Pitfall: MLBs tend to be overlooked for the award. Only Urlacher and the Ravens' Ray Lewis (2000, 2003) have won in the past 15 seasons, and Lewis' and Urlacher's individual and team performances were more impressive than Willis and the 49ers so far this season.
Texans: After losing star DE Mario Williams to injury early in the season, the Texans' defense was written off. However, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has schemed admirably, and the Texans are shutting teams down as a defensive unit, holding opponents to 16.3 PPG. Nonetheless, there isn't a star player here who warrants consideration.
Ravens: OLB/DE Terrell Suggs
Potential Historical Comparison: James Harrison, 2008.
Suggs in 2011 and Harrison in 2008 both exploded out of the gates by recording three sacks in their first game. With Ray Lewis slowed by age and injury, Suggs has taken over as the leader of the Ravens defense, coming up big when it counts. In the Ravens' two games against Pittsburgh this season, Suggs has accumulated three sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception. Additionally, Suggs notched three sacks and a forced fumble on Thanksgiving night to help defeat the previously 9-1 49ers.
Pitfall: While Suggs has been omnipresent in the spotlight, he has been equally absent in just as many games. Apart from his three-sack efforts against the Steelers and 49ers, Suggs has just three total sacks in the other eight Baltimore games. If Suggs is to win the DPOY, he needs to be more consistent on a weekly basis.
Steelers: OLB Lamarr Woodley
Woodley was having a breakout year through eight weeks before injury caused him to miss the last three games. Leading the Steelers with nine sacks, Woodley was developing into a star. However, considering the time missed, and with his status for Week 13 in doubt, Woodley's chances at DPOY have all but vanished.
While there have been impressive performances from members of the league's top four defenses, there are two players who qualify as serious outlier contenders, because their individual performance has been immaculate.
Vikings: DE Jared Allen
Potential Historical Comparison: Jason Taylor, 2006.
Allen, like Taylor in 2006, is having a monster season beyond just the sack numbers. While Allen has already matched Taylor's production of 13.5 sacks, it is the variety of ways in which Allen disrupts an offense that mirrors Taylor. Allen is the only player in the top five in sacks who has an interception, and he is tied for the lead in forced fumbles — three — with anyone in the top 10 in sacks.
Additionally, he is playing for a Vikings team that ranks 30th in in scoring defense at 26.8 PPG. If Allen had a sliver of the help defensively like Willis or Suggs do, his numbers would be even more prolific. The Vikings lost Allen's bookend lineman, Ray Edwards, to free agency. Now, Edwards — who earned himself a large contract this offseason with the Falcons — is struggling to rush the passer after enjoying success playing opposite Allen, drawing one-on-one matchups.
Pitfall: As brilliant as Allen has been, the Vikings are currently 2-9 with the league's third-to-worst defense. Allen might have to break Strahan's sack record to be considered for the award, given his team's struggles.
Cowboys: OLB DeMarcus Ware
Potential Historical Comparison: Michael Strahan, 2001.
Ware began 2011 by recording 12 sacks through just seven games, on pace to break Strahan's 2001 record. Since his hot start, Ware has slowed down and has just two sacks in his last four games. While Ware does not fill the stat sheet like Allen, he does benefit from playing for a team that is currently in first place in its division, at 7-4, and that ranks 12th in defense. If Ware can pick up his sack rate to anything close to the start of the year, he will be the front-runner for DPOY. In an outlier season where the top defenses lack outstanding individual performances, Ware's production could be rewarded.
Pitfall: Ware has been pegged as a one-dimensional sack artist during his career, highlighted in 2008 when he recorded 20 sacks and finished a distant second in the DPOY voting. While this year he does not have as stiff as competition as in 2008 with Harrison, if he does not continue to record sacks, he'll be overlooked again.
