For much of 2014, global protests against oppressive regimes took center stage in international dialogue. With people flocking to the streets in Venezuela, Ukraine, Hong Kong and the United States, no region is immune to unrest. Many of the same movements continue in 2015, proving the fight against dictatorship and oppression is not over.
It may have been global protests’ five minutes of fame, but 2014 was not unique in the vitality of displeased global citizens. 1968 saw protests in the United States across the country in response to the Vietnam War, as well as the Prague Spring. In 1989, the Chinese military massacred students at Tiananmen Square, an event that still resonates with those fighting repression. Occupy Wall Street and the Arab Spring, though vastly different, stole the stage in 2011.
The last decade has seen movements explode around the world. Protests are becoming more common, if not more connected. Between 2006 and 2010, the number of movements around the world increased overall, as did the number of participants. Oxfam estimates that 37 protests in this time drew over one million protesters. Most have centered on economic injustice, political representation and human rights.
The success of protests in 2014 is mixed. Jeremi Suri, a University of Texas historian studying global revolutions, says, “Protests were fragmented; there wasn’t one movement. We’ve learned … that it’s a lot easier to get people out in the street than it is to make a political difference.”
To an extent, he is right. Valiant students in Hong Kong failed to change the governmental status quo. But this statement does not extend to all of 2014’s most famous movements. The protests on Maidan in Ukraine effectively ousted the corrupt President Yanukovych, which, despite the continuing turmoil, is no doubt an adequate measure of success. Key protesters in the Ferguson movement met with President Obama, proving their influence in the United States government and hinting at the possibility of further concrete victory. In this conversation, activist Phillip Agnew told the president, “Nothing short of major capitulations at all levels of the government to the demands of the people could prevent [continued unrest].” The fight is not over in either of these cases, but they have clearly sparked at least some level of change.
Suri also refers to the connections between global demonstrations. Today, experts see no communication between protests. Movements may have similar root causes, but they are not feeding off each other like they did in 2011 with the Arab Spring, nor are they speaking up in support of similar movements. It may be a decade for visible protests, but global unrest is not united.
There are many factors that are correlated with the success of mass protests, but protests in 2014 undermine these established connections, resulting in unexpected failure or success. One element is non-violence. Research by Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan at University of Denver found that non-violence is the “most important factor in determining … success.” But the student movement in Hong Kong was non-violent and ultimately failed, while Maidan resorted to physical aggression. Additionally, the Hong Kong protests were highly organized, with manuals expressing goals and rules of conduct, while the Ferguson protests lacked equivalent structure and long-term planning. For many reasons, some of 2014’s protests should have been more successful, while others should have seen more limited results.
The success of protests boils down to the sentiments of the people. 2014 was a year of movement against oppressive regimes because of widely recognized dissatisfaction and a condemnation of repression. The hope is that 2015 will follow this trend and build on its predecessor's success.
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