You may have heard the phrase ‘demographic cliff’ tossed around recently.
The phrase inspires fear — a fall from a precipice, a steep drop or a tumble downwards. It could imply a stark reduction and perhaps a sobering new reality. But what is the demographic cliff really?
According to Patrick Lane, vice president for policy analysis and research at the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the U.S. is on track to face large demographic shifts in the upcoming years; more specifically, he predicts a decline in the college-aged population after 2025.
“The really noteworthy trend is that … based on all the data, all of our modeling and all of our projections, 2025 will be the high water mark for the number of high school graduates in the country in history,” Lane said.
He expanded on the meaning of a demographic cliff, a phrase that was coined about seven to eight years ago.
“The term ‘demographic cliff’ is often used. We look at it as a little bit less of a cliff and more of a slightly sloping downward trend, but that obviously has less resonance,” Lane said. “What’s important is the notion of a cliff really compels action. It’s something sudden.”
Nathan Grawe, a professor of economics at Carleton College in Minnesota, has conducted extensive research on U.S. demographic shifts. In his first book, “Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education,” he provided a new model to predict how demographics will inform college admissions.
Grawe explores the relationship between demographics and institutions, given the fact that, as he writes, “postsecondary institutions have not always proven the most agile market participants.”
While his model predicts an overall contraction across markets, Grawe writes in his book that, “a true telling of the demographic story is complex with both winners and losers.”
Some of the forces that Grawe describes as driving this change include migration, immigration and different birth rates across various demographics. He considers these factors in his Higher Education Demand Index, which is an attempt to explain how, if at all, demand for higher education will change.
But how exactly does a school like Tufts fit into all of this?
Lane explained that a selective school like Tufts does not need to worry deeply about these demographic changes.
“If you grossly oversimplify the model, you would think that with slightly fewer high school graduates, the more selective institutions will simply dip farther down into their applicant pool and be able to enroll the same number of students,” Lane said.
In his book, Grawe agrees with this perspective; however, he specifies that this new applicant pool may be different. He predicts, “In both race and geography, recruitment pools of elite institutions will experience larger shifts than at other four-year schools,” and “flexibility and a willingness to look in new markets may yield better cohorts of incoming classes with more-representative family backgrounds.”
JT Duck, Tufts dean of admissions, similarly expressed his optimism in a written statement to the Daily.
“Tufts Admissions has been preparing for the demographic cliff for many years. Admissions has taken several concrete steps to navigate the impact of the demographic cliff,” Duck wrote.
Duck explained how the admissions department has expanded its recruitment in recent years to focus more on students hailing from the South and Southwest.
“We still have more work to do to make sure that talented students in all regions of the country know about Tufts, understand how affordable it can be, and can envision themselves as a member of our community. The more successful we are at that work, the stronger position we will be in as population shifts occur and as competition for the top students remains keen,” Duck wrote.
What these demographic changes could signify for different types of institutions, though, could vary. Natasha Warikoo, a Tufts sociology professor, explained how smaller, private institutions that tend to be less selective (accepting more than half of their applicants), be open enrollment or be more regionally focused, may face challenges in upcoming years.
“Those are the kinds of colleges that I think are going to face [a] dramatic impact of this demographic cliff,” Warikoo said.
Already, small colleges like Northland College in Ashland, Wis., have been forced to close their doors due to declining enrollments and ensuing financial challenges.
In research published earlier this year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicted that an additional 80 colleges and universities will close in the upcoming five years. However, the distribution of these impacts may not be uniform.
“I think the demographic cliff is going to affect some parts of the country more than others,” Warikoo said. “We’re already seeing declines in the number of young people in New England versus the Southwest [and] the middle of the country.”
Grawe echoed this idea in his research. He found that the “HEDI forecasts remain negative for Detroit, Michigan, Illinois, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.” This means that the effects of demographic changes may be felt strongest in these regions.
What these changes will mean for the broader landscape of higher education has yet to be determined.
“Some people say higher [education] is going to be completely disrupted, revolutionized. Other people might say it’s just going to change around the margins a little bit,” Lane said.
Warikoo discussed potential ways to mitigate the effects of the demographic cliff.
“I think the way to mitigate that a little bit is to admit more international students. There’s a pretty high demand for U.S. education [from them],” Warikoo said.
Grawe lays out three defined paths for institutions to take in light of demographic change. They can either take the budget management approach, which includes budget cuts, or they can take the hopeful approach, which entails increasing attendance by reaching out to untraditional groups. Alternatively, they can take the nimble path, which includes redeployment of recruitment resources.
Lane laid out other approaches that many larger institutions are taking to attract students and reduce barriers to admissions.
One of these ways is through direct admissions, where students above a certain GPA receive automatic acceptance to a public institution in their state. Lane explained that this measure can help reach students who are on the margins of going to college or not. He also explained the benefits of the simplification of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, which has helped streamline the college admissions process for many students.
Lane described our current period of demographic stressors as a time of opportunity.
“This is a time for post-secondary education to focus on the students that they will be getting, focus on how best to serve them and focus on really making sure that they receive value by enrolling, by completing degrees … and then getting through into meaningful employment,” Lane said.
Despite the stakes, Lane still feels optimistic.
“By no means … [is] the sky is falling. We don’t have to worry about the end of higher education because there won’t be enough 18-year-olds. It’s really about adapting and serving the students that are coming in and really trying to make sure that they get value out of their education,” Lane said.
