If you need proof that time flies, consider that it’s already been 11 months since Nico Harrison dealt Luka Dončić to the Los Angeles Lakers in what was, for my money, the biggest trade in NBA history.
Most Laker fans are still thanking their lucky stars that No. 77 landed in their lap last February, but as time goes on and resounding results are yet to be found, some fans are beginning to have second thoughts about the deal.
How could this be?
Well, a couple of reasons. Number one: the immense luck that gifted the Mavericks the No. 1 draft pick (Duke phenom Cooper Flagg). Number two: the disillusionment of Laker fans who have now experienced the Luka Dončić Conundrum.
Now you may ask, what exactly is the Luka Dončić Conundrum? Well, that’s what I’m trying to understand too. For now, all I know is it’s an issue defined by diametrically opposed traits: Luka’s abundant offensive talent and his simultaneous lack of defensive commitment. However, the question requires consideration of the context of his entire career.
Currently in his seventh season, Dončić has only been on one team that has ranked higher than 15th in defensive rating — the 2021–22 Mavericks, who ranked sixth back in Jason Kidd’s first year as head coach. It was a team anchored by strong wing defenders such as Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock, and though they dealt their central rim protector Kristaps Porziņģis to the Wizards at the trade deadline, they remained a formidable defensive team throughout their run to the Western Conference Finals.
After the Lakers acquired Dončić last year, it seemed that they were looking to replicate the defensive blueprint of that Mavericks team, utilizing plus defenders like Cam Reddish, Jarred Vanderbilt and Finney-Smith to offset the weak backcourt of Dončić and Austin Reaves. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt and Finney-Smith both struggled coming back from injuries, and Reddish was waived in late March. They also made the grave mistake of believing Jaxson Hayes could anchor the paint at center. To Rob Pelinka, the general manager of the Lakers, credit, he later pursued a trade for Mark Williams, which collapsed after Williams failed his physical.
In the new season, things have only gotten worse. Los Angeles did add former Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart, who has contributed a boost when playing next to Reaves and Dončić, but overall results remain elusive. Currently, the Lakers rank 25th in team DRtg, down from 15th last year.
Dončić’s individual defensive stats reveal a mixed bag. In the last year and a half, his Defensive Box Plus-Minus and Defensive Win Shares are at their lowest since 2021, but stats like Defensive Regularized Plus-Minus and Estimated Plus-Minus have steadily increased. There’s nothing conclusive in these figures, but the data generally points to the obvious conclusion: Dončić, historically a weak defender, is not being done any favors. The bump in dEPM, albeit bolstered by the small sample size, actually shows that Luka has been giving more effort as a defender, but the team has still lacked results.
It’s a tricky situation for Pelinka and head coach JJ Redick to manage. Lebron James is getting older, playing fewer games and generally unable to exert himself as much on the defensive end of the floor. The trio of Reaves, Dončić and James has a DRtg of +7.2 and a -4.0 on offense. Not good.
There’s simply no Band-Aid solution for this issue. When the Lakers' core trio fails to provide massive offensive results, they cannot win games, yet there is no clear pathway to move on from any of them. While James plays out the waning years of his career in Lakerland, the team remains stuck in purgatory.
Who knows if things will get better after Lebron, when the Lakers truly become Luka’s team. He’s had his fair share of health concerns, including recurring ankle sprains and calf strains, which I attribute to the fact that he sacrifices a good deal of the offseason to play for Slovenia every year.
Until then, the Luka Dončić Conundrum remains unresolved: a generational offensive engine whose teams keep searching — unsuccessfully — for a defensive ecosystem to sustain him. Dončić is one of the most prolific guards without an NBA Championship to his name, and it looks as though he’ll have to keep waiting.
