There are award years where you end up allotting a winner because somebody has to win. This is not one of those years.
This is one of the best MVP races I can remember. In my lifetime, I have never seen four individual players have this dominant of statistical seasons all at once. Nikola Jokić is averaging 27.8 points, 12.9 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game, which means the man leading the league in both rebounds and assists could finish third on the final ballot. That is insane. Luka Dončić had led the league in scoring at 33.5 points per game while averaging 8.3 assists, and he got to 64 games before being ruled out for the rest of the regular season with a hamstring strain. He is currently one game short of the 65-game threshold for awards eligibility and is seeking an exception to that rule. Victor Wembanyama, meanwhile, is at 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and a league-best 3.1 blocks per game for a San Antonio Spurs team that has the second-best record in the league.
Of course, MVP favorite would be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.1 points per game for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who clinched the best record in the NBA on Wednesday. He is going to clear an average of 30 PPG for the fourth straight season, and he is doing it with career-high efficiency that is unheard of for guards. This is the part where I should apologize in advance for doing the extremely dangerous — and possibly sacrilegious — thing of making a comparison to Michael Jordan, but Gilgeous-Alexander’s late-game scoring really does invite it. Once the game gets close and the clock gets low, there is this same sense of inevitability to it. He gets the ball, he gets where he wants and two points appear. My pick is Gilgeous-Alexander, back to back.
Defensive Player of the Year is much easier. Give Wembanyama the trophy and move on. He leads the league in blocks, but the bigger point is that his block number almost undersells the case. Players are actively avoiding shooting anywhere near him. The reason he is not blocking six shots a game may be that people have just gotten smart enough to stop trying around him half the time. Add in the fact that the Spurs are allowing 12 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and this award should be his. As long as Wembanyaya plays enough games to qualify each season, it’s likely we won’t see another winner of this award for the next 10 years.
Rookie of the Year is the funnest race on the ballot. It is a two-man race between Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, and both cases are real.
Knueppel has the historic shooting case. He is averaging 18.6 points per game, he broke the NBA rookie single-season 3-pointer record back in February and, last week, he broke the Charlotte Hornets’ franchise record for made 3-pointers in a season. He also became the only player aged 22 or younger in NBA history to reach 250 3-pointers in a season, not to mention a flurry of other records related to his remarkable efficiency.
The case against him is not really a case against him. It is more that he is being asked to do a different job than Flagg. Knueppel has been an absurd, additive piece on a good Hornets team, but Flagg has had to be the engine of the Mavericks and really one of the only bright spots in the entire organization. He is averaging 21.2 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.6 assists, and his closing argument has been ridiculous. He dropped 51 points on the Orlando Magic, becoming the youngest player and first teenager in NBA history to score 50 points in a game, and then he followed it with 45 points, nine assists and eight rebounds in a win over the Los Angeles Lakers.
Honestly, them sharing the award as ex-college roommates would be kind of perfect, and co-Rookies of the Year have happened before. But to avoid the cop-out answer, I will go with Flagg. The load has been heavier, and I still think he is the best player in the class.
Sixth Man of the Year is Keldon Johnson for me. He has emerged as the favorite, mostly because he does exactly what the Spurs need him to do. He gives San Antonio lineup flexibility, he can play with pretty much any group of players and he has helped power a team that just clinched the No. 2 seed in the West. He is averaging 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds, and he became the first player in Spurs history to reach 1,000 points off the bench in a season. Plus, bench production on a contender always feels a little more serious than bench production on a team headed to the lottery.
Coach of the Year is Joe Mazzulla. The Boston Celtics were supposed to have a down year after the Jayson Tatum achilles injury from last spring and all the churn around the roster, but instead, the Celtics clinched the East’s No. 2 seed on Friday night with their 55th win. He has done magic with the pieces he was given, turning random bench players into deeply annoying experiences for the other team. Hugo González, Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and all those bench-energy guys have had incredible years as a result of Mazzulla’s coaching. Part of the fun of this pick is also that he clearly does not care about the award at all. He called Coach of the Year a stupid award, which only makes me want him to win it more.
Finally, Most Improved Player is Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Since the Atlanta Hawks traded Trae Young to the Washington Wizards in January, Atlanta has finally reentered relevancy in the Eastern Conference. They are 27–14 since the trade and have lost only five games since the All-Star break. Alexander-Walker has been one of the main reasons. He is up to a career-best 20.8 points per game, steering the Hawks’ offense while taking on the toughest assignments on the other end.
