The NESCAC Tournament will start on Sunday — but that is about the only thing that is certain in the world of NESCAC men's lacrosse this season.
Tufts has secured at least the second seed in the conference and home−field advantage for the first game, but where it play next weekend, as well as who it will face, is very much up in the air.
Tonight at 7 p.m., Tufts will host the No. 3 team in the conference, the Bowdoin Polar Bears, on Bello Field. Last year, the Polar Bears beat the Jumbos in their last regular−season game under the lights, and Tufts is undoubtedly out for revenge. But the contest has implications that go beyond boyish rivalries: If Tufts wins and current first−seeded Conn. College loses to eighth−seeded Wesleyan, Tufts will move into first and take over tournament hosting honors.
"Most importantly, whoever we play Sunday has nothing to do with Bowdoin College," coach Mike Daly said. "Bowdoin is one of the most athletic teams we have faced all year and, I promise you, they have our full attention right now. We will worry about who we'll be playing Sunday after Bowdoin."
The matchup the Jumbos will be watching, between the national No. 8 Camels and the Cardinals, may seem highly weighted against Wesleyan — and by proxy Tufts — but an upset is far from out of the question. Conn. College is coming off a 12−9 loss to Colby last Saturday, the first of its season, while Wesleyan took down NESCAC No. 4 Amherst, 16−8. So, Tufts will wait to see if the Camel's first loss of the season rattled them enough to give the fired up Cardinals an opening.
Every other seed in the tournament is even less certain. Amherst will take on the ninth team in the conference, Trinity, on the Bantams' turf, and the Lord Jeffs currently hold a 4−4 conference record — the same record as Colby, Middlebury and Williams. If the Lord Jeffs win, then the picture does not change; they would stay in fourth and host the No. 5 seed on Sunday. However, if Amherst slips up this afternoon, the loss could cause them to take a big fall into anywhere from fifth to eighth place, depending on today's other games, and subsequently lose home−field advantage for the first round.
"To tell you the truth, having no discernable percentage on who we might play — because it is so wide open — it will help us focus on Trinity," Amherst coach Tom Carmean said. "We don't have anything substantial to look at … we could be traveling to Maine or at home, or anywhere in between. Having that vague quality allows us a much easier road to focus on what's coming up [tonight]. There's really just nothing else to think about because we can't focus on just one or two opponents."
Colby will be fighting to stay in the No. 5 spot when it faces Bates, though the Mules' fate is almost completely out of their hands. Bates is 0−8 in the league and does not pose a significant threat to Colby on paper, but if the Mules choke, they will certainly fall in the rankings. And, unfortunately for them, even with a victory, simultaneous Amherst and Williams wins would still push them into sixth. Colby has no chance of hosting any games this tournament, but a drop in the standings will undoubtedly hurt its prospects in their quarterfinals.
Also weighing in on the standings is tonight's game between Middlebury and Williams in Williamstown, Mass. Currently in sixth and seventh, respectively, the loser of the game will get the lower seed, while losses from Amherst and Colby would put the winner in the No. 4 slot with the opportunity to host.
"Based on how they've been playing, I'd say Middlebury," said Daly when asked who will win that contest. "But Williams being at home could very well negate that. All in all, it will be interesting to see who comes out ahead."
Tonight will prove to be exciting for NESCAC lacrosse with all 10 teams facing off in their final contests of the regular season. Bowdoin's No. 3 standing is the only spot that will be unaffected by today's games while the rest of the NESCAC teams will have to fight it out for their tournament seeds.
If everything ends up as it should on paper, Conn. will stay at No. 1 due to the Camels' head−to−head advantage over Tufts, with the Jumbos and Bowdoin behind them. This means Conn. College will face Wesleyan again in the first round and Tufts would take on Williams, if they follow suit and lose to Middlebury. Bowdoin would host Middlebury and Amherst would welcome Colby for the 4−5 game.
But if everything went the way it is supposed to, the league wouldn't be this deadlocked in the first place. The Jumbos and the rest of the NESCAC will just have to wait to see how the pieces fall because, at this point, Tufts and Conn. College could face any of the lower five teams in the quarterfinals.
"I say this talking to the guys all the time: Whichever group of … guys shows up, that's who will win," Daly said. "On any given day in this league, anybody can beat anybody."
"Well I really think that with our league, and probably all the other coaches, would agree, every single game is absolutely the game you should be focusing on," Carmean added. "There are no easy games in this league. We realize a loss would do away with our chances of a home game, but our first goal is to do well [tonight] because everything else is really up to other people. We're just going to try and take care of what we can take care of."
