Mike Trout, José Altuve, Josh Donaldson, and Mookie Betts, in some order, are the favorites for American League (AL) MVP this year. Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a performance measure, it’s clear that all four have had incredible seasons. Trout (9.64) leads the bunch, followed by Betts (8.51), Altuve (7.74) and finally Donaldson (6.86). Despite Trout’s large lead in WAR, he has not been the AL's most valuable player.
Mookie Betts is the best all-around position player in baseball. He is a potent offensive threat, excellent defender and the second best baserunner in the league. Looking at traditional stats for the season thus far, Betts has posted a slash line of .315/.356/.539. He is second in total hits, two behind Altuve, and has hit 30 home runs so far, displaying his ability to hit for both average and power, which is rare for a player standing at 5’9’’. Betts is also ranked by Baseball-Reference as the seventh-best defender in baseball, ahead of his outfield dancing partner Jackie Bradley Jr.and everyone else in contention for AL MVP. Using FanGraph’s BsR, an all-encompassing base running statistic, Betts ranks second with a BsR of 9.4, where a value of 8.0 is considered “excellent." Betts, again, ranks ahead of every other contender for AL MVP in BsR. Although he falls behind Trout, Altuve, and Donaldson in offensive measures of value, Betts supersedes them as an all-around baseball player.
With the Red Sox in the heat of a pennant race, it would not be unreasonable to assume that Betts could kick it into an even higher gear. Call it smaller sample size or an actual improvement, but he looks like a different player later in the year. In 2015 -- his first full season -- his on-base plus slugging (OPS) jumped from .774 (516 plate appearances) to .998 (138 PA). This season, Betts’ OPS from April to August was .926. If Betts experiences a jump like the ones he has experienced the past two years, it could push him into the lead of the MVP race.
Let’s face it, players on non-playoff teams don’t win the MVP. The last non-playoff player to win AL MVP was Alex Rodriguez in 2003, when he posted a WAR of 8.4.The runners-up all posted WAR’s of 5.0 or less, a pretty weak field of MVP candidates. As a recent example, in 2015, Trout, on a third-place Angels team, posted a WAR of 9.4 and finished second in MVP voting to Donaldson’s 8.8 WAR, who played on a first-place Blue Jays team, indicating that WAR isn’t the be-all end-all for deciding MVP. Even though Trout has played well this season, precedent gives Betts the edge.
In weighing all the factors that make a great baseball player, Betts is the clear standout. He’s a top-10 fielder, top-3 base runner, a top-10 batter and a top-3 dancer (see: #WinDanceRepeat.) He is also in the middle of a pennant race with a first-place Red Sox team seemingly bound for October baseball. History gives the edge to Betts, but we’ll have to wait until November to see if the baseball writers do too.
