There are currently multiple companies that have created computer programs capable of replacing a team of lawyers and paralegals with a computer program and a few lawyers.There are firms that are testing programs capable of doing project management jobs in many contexts. You have probably unwittingly read a newspaper article written by a bot. Self-driving cars are not a fantasy or a product of science fiction: they are here, driving around Pittsburgh and from coast to coast.
This is the world of automation we live in now. As we are being swamped with think pieces on the future of work, it’s important to understand what this is: Rapid and successive breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and machine learning have made it so that many tasks, previously thought to be exclusive to people, can now be done by computer programs. This is called automation.
Unexpectedly fast and exponential advances are pushing the boundaries on which tasks can be automated every day. The ground is moving out from under our feet at such a fast and accelerating rate that anything written on the subject a decade ago has already become obsolete.
Companies across the world are developing computer programs that will replace human labor, both physical and otherwise. There is no way of avoiding this fact. A landmark study from 2013 estimated that approximately 47 percent of all U.S. jobs can be automated. Many of these jobs fall in the blue-collar category, though the employment prospects of the educated who see themselves as immune to this are not safe either; many white-collar jobs from project management to journalism to finance to medicine are within the scope of existing automation technology.
We cannot say, “We won’t have to worry about that for another hundred years,” like the shortsighted remark made by the current Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. A revolution in employment is upon us and we cannot wish it away. Many aspects of our lives, from how we provide for ourselves to unemployment insurance to universal basic income to the 40-hour workweek, the 8-hour work day, the concept of weekend, intellectual property and copyright regimes, our work-based self-identity and lifestyle and many other things will have to be reimagined and reconsidered.
These developments, while making many businesses more productive, will disrupt labor markets and will happen soon. Instead of ignoring the problem or arguing over whether it will actually happen, we need to discuss adjustments and solutions. We cannot kid ourselves by comparing the present to the Industrial Revolution and claim that new jobs will magically come into existence. They won’t. And, even if they did, not quickly enough to avert the automated future.
Looking Out: The future we can't ignore
