If there’s any player who most defines the current state of NBA basketball, it’s the Houston Rockets' James Harden. The prolific guard makes a living on the two most efficient shots in basketball: field goal attempts from the paint and shots from behind the 3-point line.
Harden's domination of the Rockets’ offense is historic — his current usage rate of 40.2 percent ranks behind only Russell Westbrook’s 2016–2017 41.7 percent effort as the second highest of all time. The reasoning behind these two ball-dominant seasons strike a similarity: Westbrook had to step up his numbers due to Kevin Durant’s departure to Golden State, while Harden has had to weather the absence of star point guard Chris Paul and double-double machine Clint Capela. These types of gaudy statistical seasons originate mostly out of necessity — a star must hog the ball because he's the lone player who can create looks for teammates.
But this level of ball dominance tends to result in an inefficient offense. The Thunder finished only No. 16 in offensive efficiency during Westbrook’s MVP season. A singular player should not be able to carry a smooth, high-functioning offense game in and game out without at least a secondary star to alleviate the pressure. Harden is challenging the limits of what one man can achieve on a basketball court.
Last year, the Rockets structured their offense around Harden and Paul isolations. This isolation-heavy offense, typically deemed an ineffective style over which more well-rounded attacks will triumph, surprisingly resulted in the highest offensive efficiency in the league. The Rockets’ high-powered offense, which took the star-studded Warriors all the way to a Game 7 in the western conference finals, essentially consisted of two players dribbling the air out of the ball while three other watched. That same offense stagnated in the early part of this season, as the Rockets dropped all the way to No. 14 in the Western Conference standings at one point.
But since Paul went down with a hamstring strain, the team has surprisingly regained its mojo. This renewed success can be attributed almost entirely to Harden’s wizardry: He has now averaged 42.65 points in his last 20 games. These video game-like numbers have keyed the Rockets' ascent to fifth place in the conference just as Harden has recorded more isolation possessions on his own than any other NBA franchise has this season. Surprisingly, the Rockets have still managed to produce the third-most efficient offense in the league. However, we are beginning to see the limits of Houston’s simplistic offensive approach: The team is now 4–5 in its last nine games, despite Harden’s other-worldly scoring efforts.
It will be fascinating to see how Harden adjusts upon Paul’s return — will his efficiency improve as a result of a slightly diminished offensive role? Harden does specialize almost exclusively in unassisted shots — a fact that will remain unchanged regardless of Paul’s presence on the court. Even if Harden and Paul reach the same level of success as last year, is the Rockets’ isolation-heavy style truly the ideal form of offensive efficiency? The answer will lie in their ability to finish the task they nearly completed last year: conquering the juggernaut that is Golden State.
