Tomorrow, voters will go to the polls in six states: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota and Washington. In total, 352 pledged delegates will be allocated, which pales in comparison to the nearly 1,344 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday last week.
Last Tuesday, Bernie Sanders underperformed; there is no denying that. Moderate politicians coalesced around Joe Biden to give him a national pledged delegate lead, and the primary map tomorrow could not be more favorable to Joe Biden. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden is predicted to win every contest, except Washington and Idaho, where Biden is running almost dead-even with Sanders.
But no contest better exemplifies the make-or-break nature of these six primaries than Michigan. It’s a state Sanders shockingly won over Hillary Clinton, and one that is the Democrats’ best path to 270 electoral votes. Sanders has consistently argued he can win the election against Donald Trump, but that argument loses legitimacy when Sanders fails to overtake Joe Biden.
I don’t believe for a minute that Bernie will drop out if he fails to win Michigan. Like in 2016, Sanders will martyr himself throughout the primary process, not conceding his progressive legitimacy until the convention nears. From March until the July convention in Milwaukee, Sanders will fly from state to state, gathering larger crowds than Joe Biden and offering more media availability, but he’ll slowly bleed in the battle for delegates until Biden’s seemingly unshakeable support from African Americans and suburban voters kills his candidacy.
Bernie’s political life will end on Tuesday if he fails to win a large share of those 352 delegates. There is no reasonable path for Bernie Sanders to be the Democrats’ candidate for president even if he wins a 70–30 in Washington, as he did in 2016, but falls flat everywhere else.
I have a great personal affinity for Joe Biden. I have met him a few times, and he has never failed to be kind. Joe Biden has suffered more personal tragedy than nearly any politician in modern American history: burying his 1-year-old daughter and first wife after they were killed in a car accident, losing his eldest son Beau to brain cancer when he was only 46 and helping his younger, misguided son Hunter deal with drug addiction. A common justification for Biden’s candidacy is that he will “restore the soul of America” because Joe’s own personal decency in the face of unimaginable horror will serve as an example of moral leadership.
But no one should buy that.
Barack Obama is a decent, honorable man. Elizabeth Warren is a ferociously kind politician. Hillary Clinton was more tenacious and graceful than Donald Trump or any other Republican politician. And yet the Republicans pilloried them anyway.
On Tuesday, Bernie Sanders will fall even further behind in the delegate count, slowly starving his campaign of fundraising and media attention. And as Bernie soldiers on, highlighting Biden’s support for the Iraq War and the bankruptcy bill, the result will be the same as in 2016: An establishment favorite up against the well-funded, race-baiting, jingoistic Republican party machine.
Primary Colors: Tuesday may break Bernie Sanders
