Welcome back to Bottom of the Ninth! It’s been an eventful summer of baseball since my last column and there are way too many stories to cover in just one column. We saw multiple stars moved at the Aug. 3 trade deadline, the rise of a new generation highlighted by Pete Crow-Armstrong and multiple surprise teams contending for playoff spots. (I apologize to the Chicago White Sox for my previous comments.)
There were also several developments in negotiations over MLB’s expiring collective bargaining agreement and its potential to cause a lockout next season, which I have been focusing on throughout this column. The biggest disagreement between owners, who are represented by MLB, and the MLB Players Association remains MLB’s proposal of a league-wide salary cap and floor beginning in 2027. While owners argue that this would be beneficial for the sport by reducing the significant spending disparity between teams, the players’ union has stated that they will not agree to a salary cap of any kind due to the pay cut players would have to take. As of now, this issue seems likely to drag into 2027 and cause a delay — if not a complete loss of the season — which has happened during negotiations in past years.
This leads me into the story I want to cover today: the recent dominance of small-market teams. Despite all the attention that goes to teams in large markets such as the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Milwaukee Brewers currently find themselves atop the National League while the Tampa Bay Rays lead the American League. These teams respectively have the 19th- and 28th-highest payrolls out of the 30 teams in the MLB. Even if their payrolls were combined, they would only be the ninth- highest and would still only spend roughly half as much as the top-ranked Dodgers.
This raises an important question: How are these teams beating their competition without access to the same financial resources? In my opinion, the two most important factors are player development and top-notch front offices that consistently outsmart the rest of the league. Of the 10 players who have produced the most value for the Rays this season, eight were drafted by the organization or acquired via trade. For the Brewers, this number goes up to nine of their 10 most valuable players. This shows that without the ability to outbid the richest teams for free agents, small-market teams need to be especially reliant on these methods. While it’s often a joke among baseball fans that teams shouldn’t trade with the Rays or Brewers out of fear they will get fleeced, there is some real credence behind this.
For example, the Rays acquired reliever Bryan Baker from the Baltimore Orioles at last year’s trade deadline in exchange for a draft pick. While few thought much of this in a season where the Rays had actually sold players at the deadline, they were clearly one step ahead. This year, Baker has become one of the league’s best closers and leads the MLB in saves. The Rays also saw something in Victor Mesa Jr., whom they acquired from the Miami Marlins in an offseason trade that barely generated any buzz. This year, Mesa has added almost two miles per hour to his bat speed, which has helped him hit for power and raise his weighted runs created plus by over 40 points from last season.
For the Brewers, their success has been led by star pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who is a near-lock to win his first career Cy Young Award. While the Brewers are known for having a ‘pitching lab’ that consistently churns out elite arms, Misiorowski’s development might be their greatest success yet. After showing flashes of greatness last season in limited action, Misiorowski improved his command and added a new cutter. These changes allowed him to cut his walk rate in half and make his signature fastball look even more deceptive, generating even more swings and misses.
As negotiations over a salary cap continue, the recent success of small-market teams raises the question of whether a competitive imbalance truly exists. If teams like the Rays and Brewers can win games without emptying their pockets, does the MLB really need to intervene? I’ll be continuing to cover this topic biweekly throughout the semester, so stay tuned for more!
